Wolfe Research analyst Bill Carcache downgraded the credit card issuers to Underweight from Market Weight on his view that a recession is likely. The analyst now models an 80% probability of a recession by 2024. Credit card issuers with greater exposure to prime and super-prime credits are likely to come under further pressure amid the growing probability of recession, Carcache tells investors in a research note. The Federal Reserve has a long track record of tipping the economy into recession when it has sought to cool inflation during tightening cycles, and history “is likely to repeat itself,” writes the analyst. He believes stocks that cannot cover their cost of equity deserve to trade below tangible book value, “even in a mild recession.” Shares today still trade 23%-59% above their tangible book value, according to Carcache. The analyst downgraded American Express (AXP) to Peer Perform from Outperform with a price target of $146, down from $213, Capital One (COF) to Underperform from Peer Perform with a price target of $86, down from $131, Discover (DFS) to Peer Perform from Outperform with a price target of $97, down from $136, and Synchrony (SYF) to Underperform from Peer Perform with a price target of $22, down from $38. He also cut the firm’s target on Peer Perform-rated Bread Financial (BFH) to $49 from $60.