The Federal Government Might Not Let Netflix Get Away With This - InvestingChannel

The Federal Government Might Not Let Netflix Get Away With This

Proprietary Data Insights

Top Entertainment Stock Searches This Month

RankNameSearches
#1AMC Entertainment1,300,396
#2Netflix153,000
#3Walt Disney Company133,279
#4Roku55,933
#5Comcast Corp9,081

 

Netflix Inflation

Source: The Verge

Streaming Inflation

It’s not only Netflix that’s making us feel like streaming isn’t the bargain it was just a few years ago when we started cutting the cord from traditional cable TV. 

If you want a cable-like package from a streamer these days, it’ll cost you. In some cases, just as much as a package from an old school name such as Comcast. 

Here’s a representative example:

  • YouTube TV costs $65 a month for 85 channels. That’s up from $35 just four years ago. 
  • Add Showtime and you’ll pay $11 more a month. Starz, $9. 
  • Sports and other premium packages can cost even more. 

By comparison, Comcast’s most expensive package runs $85 a month for 12 months with more than 260 channels. 

Americans love to hate cable companies. So, given fresh options, we abandoned them in droves. While we don’t quite hate the streaming platforms yet, the writing might be on the wall.

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The Federal Government Might Not Let Netflix Get Away With This

Key Takeaways:

  • The media continues to list all the (obvious) reasons why Roku should buy Netflix. 
  • There’s no doubt the deal makes theoretical sense, especially for Netflix. 
  • However, The Juice wonders if the Government might have a problem. 

 

Every analysis The Juice has seen of the rumor that Netflix (NFLX) will buy Roku (ROKU) says the same thing. There’s incredible synergy and tons of benefits (especially for Netflix) in this deal. 

In fact, Motley Fool called it a match made in heaven that, apparently, Roku employees hope happens. They’ll make out financially. And Netflix will, for starters, solve one of its biggest problems – getting an advertising strategy off the ground as quickly as possible.

Sounds Great, But Here’s The Problem

A few years ago net neutrality was all the rage. The idea that internet service providers – companies such as Comcast – should treat all content and content providers equally. They shouldn’t favor bigger players or slow down streaming speeds for, say, Netflix or Apple TV, while favoring their own service. 

For a long time, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings was a huge supporter of net neutrality. That was until Netflix became so big it didn’t have to worry about an ISP bullying it. 

While a Netflix/Roku deal doesn’t speak directly to net neutrality, a similar principle applies. 

Netflix Would Have Too Much Control Over Streaming

Source: eMarketer

Roku dominates among streaming operating systems. 

  • As of late last year, Roku owned more U.S. connected TV market share (51.7%) than Amazon’s Fire TV (45.0%) and Apple TV (13.1%). 
  • In Q1/2022, Roku added 1.1 million accounts to hit 61.3 million. 
  • In terms of hours streamed, Roku’s Roku Channel, which features a mix of live and on-demand content, was among the top 5 apps on the platform. 

Simply put, if Netflix buys Roku it will control a ton of content (its own and Roku’s growing stable) as well as the biggest delivery system of streaming content in the U.S. 

It would gain a level of control over its competitors – at least in the Roku ecosystem – the Department of Justice might not be comfortable with. 

Look At Your Remote Control 

Roku doesn’t just throw names in a hat to decide which platforms get those special featured buttons on your remote control.

It costs money. Streaming services reportedly pay $1 a customer to get that placement. Taking over the Roku homepage can cost millions. 

You see where we’re going. 

Netflix could very easily turn the screws on its competitors, giving itself the upper hand and prime placement across Roku. 

The Bottom Line: The Juice has yet to hear anybody bring up the government amid these Netflix/Roku rumors. So we wanted to throw this out there before people get too excited about a potential deal. 

At the same time, Netflix might not have the financial firepower to pull off the transaction. It would likely have to pay something in the neighborhood of $15 billion for Roku, representing a 30% premium. That’s a lot, particularly when you consider Netflix sits on just $6 billion in cash and $14.5 billion in long-term debt. 

Buying Roku could be a bad deal for Netflix shareholders, adding to the list of things that make the stock increasingly unattractive at the moment.

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