Short the Super Bowl? - InvestingChannel

Short the Super Bowl?

Proprietary Data Insights

Stocks with the Largest % Increase in Search Interest This Week

#1Huadi International Group6,744%
#5Palantir Technologies120%

Crypto’s getting crushed again this week, thanks largely to the FTX exchange’s liquidity crisis. As we write this, Bitcoin (BTC) is at just over $17,500, down nearly 18% over the last five days.

If you like carnage, this pairs well with the Carvana (CVNA) collapse we told you about earlier this week. CNVA is down a hefty 24% over the last week alone. 

And after weak earnings, DraftKings (DKNG) tanked 25% last week before regaining its lost ground in Friday’s rally on cooling inflation (year-over-year growth in consumer prices slowed to 7.7% in October).

These massive crashes make the decline we’ve seen in blue-chip tech stocks seem tame.

And they’ve sparked investor interest. Across all stocks in our proprietary Trackstar database, CVNA and DKNG surged the third and fourth most over the past week, with respective 144% and 233% increases in investor searches. 

Source: Google Finance

Wait, check that. 

Outside of basically flat Apple (AAPL), some of the most beaten-down legacy tech stocks over the last year have rebounded nicely this week. In fact the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which tracks the top 100 Nasdaq stocks, is up about 4.5%. 

In the current environment, let’s call big, blue chip tech a flight to safety, at least compared to broader and more volatile tech. 

This mixed landscape also got us thinking back to the Super Bowl. 

What do crypto, Carvana, and Draftkings all have in common? They spent big and dominated 2022 Super Bowl advertising. What was supposed to be the big reveal turned into a major embarrassment. 

Relatively speaking, we didn’t see nearly as much from well-established big tech and literally nothing from Apple and Microsoft (MSFT).

The Juice thinks the latter two should spend big on 2023’s big game and reassert their dominance not only in tech, but our day-to-day lives. Alongside Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN), who did run Super Bowl spots in 2022, we’d much rather own these names than the big Super Bowl spenders whose stocks got crushed after spending so big on these risky 30- and 60-second ads. 

Just how badly did the Super Bowl stocks get crushed? So bad you’ll wish you shorted almost all of them. Scroll with us for the mind-blowing numbers.


Short the Super Bowl?

Key Takeaways:

  • The cost of a Super Bowl ad will hit another record high in 2023. 
  • Believe it or not, FOX has already sold most of its inventory for the big game. 
  • The Juice doesn’t think you’ll see much crypto during breaks in the big game this season. 


If you would have shorted the stocks of companies that advertised on the 2022 Super Bowl this past February, you would have made money. Good money. With a few exceptions, the bottom has fallen out on some of the biggest spenders, made up largely of crypto companies and tech disruptors. 

  • A 30-second commercial during 2022’s Super Bowl cost $6.5 million. 
  • For 2023’s game, we expect that number to rise to $7 million. 
  • As of September, FOX says it has sold 95% of its Super Bowl inventory. 

Makes you wonder what some of these crypto and new tech companies we’re thinking. Not only did they have to pay for the actual time, they shelled out additional millions to craft and create the commercials as well as hire celebrities such as Larry David to appear in them. 

Reminds us of the big spending infant dot-com companies did to announce their arrivals as the online bubble was about to burst in 2000. 

  • 19 dot-com startups bought Super Bowl ads in 2000. 
  • At that time, a 30-second spot cost $2.1 million. 
  • Of the 19 who ran commercials, eight no longer exist. 
  • Among the dead: and

At least a few of 2022’s Super Bowl spenders will likely repeat 2020’s history sooner or later. 

Call it foreshadowing. A look at some of 2022’s worst performers who blew money on Super Bowl commercials to start the year: 

  • Coinbase (COIN) down 80%
  • Carvana down 96%
  • Draftkings down 53%
  • Rocket Companies (RKT) down 49% 
  • Uber (UBER) down 35%

However, it’s not only the new/newish tech names who advertised that got hammered: 

  • Expedia (EXPE) down 48%
  • Amazon down 43%
  • Salesforce (CRM) down 40% 
  • Alphabet down 36%
  • Booking Holdings (BKNG) down 21%

How about some of the well-established, relatively stodgy, blue chip names who used the Super Bowl to advertise? 

  • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) down 48%
  • Verizon (VZ) down 27%
  • Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD) down 15%
  • Unilever (UL) down 13%
  • AT&T (T) down 2%
  • PepsiCo (PEP) UP 4%

The Bottom Line: Amazing. It took PepsiCo, which forked over money for a Lay’s potato chips ad, to save us. 

The investing lessons in this: Sometimes history does repeat itself

It’s difficult to ignore the similarities between 2000’s dot-com crash and today’s crypto and new tech crashes. Ambitious, maybe overzealous companies spending money like it’s going out of style to assert themselves literally days ahead of their demise. 

To that end, you’re almost always better off in the dividend-paying consumer stocks The Juice loves – like PEP – and tech stalwarts such as Apple and Microsoft. 

Like we said yesterday, construct your portfolio with blue chips first and speculative stocks with realistic long-term stories second. You’ll sleep better at night and make money over the long haul.

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