In this article, we talk about the 25 most dangerous countries in the world in 2022. You can skip our detailed analysis of the relationship between crime and economic growth around the world and go directly to 5 Most Dangerous Countries in the World in 2022.
Crime, Instability and Economy
Research from Auburn University shows that for an increase of 10% in crime in a country with a mean population of 25 million, it loses $225 million (adjusted for inflation in 2022) in revenue from tourism annually.
Moreover, the EGADE Business School of Mexico studied the effects of crime on the inflow of Direct Foreign Investment (DFI) in the country from 2005-2015 and found that homicides and robberies had a statistically-significant negative effect on DFI-inflows during the period. For every 1% increase in homicides, there was a decrease of 0.28% in foreign investment. Robberies had a bigger effect, with 0.33% loss in DFI for every 1% increase in robberies.
As far as political instability goes, it has been shown to be positively correlated with crime and most likely has a multiplying effect on the latter.
The US, as the dominant military and economic power in the world, has intervened in several countries to prevent political instability. It is able to enforce the rules-based order owing to its military superiority, thanks to defense-technology companies like Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) and Raytheon Technologies Corporation (NYSE:RTX).
Mitigating Strategies
We’ve focused on crime in this section since political instability does not have a one-size-fits-all solution. Even in crime, the best bet is to prevent it practically in the most efficient way possible until there’s a unified criminal theory that captures all its nuance. In this respect, the concept of smart cities shows promise.
It comprises three layers: technology like smartphones and communication networks like the internet, digital applications that mine insights from big-data, and city-wide implementation frameworks.
In terms of crimes in mega cities that are economically important and hard to manage, incidents like robberies, car-theft and burglary could be reduced by 30-40% while response time could be cut by 20-35% using smart city concepts with statistical crime-hot-area flagging and data-driven policing etc.
This should of course be done in a manner that does not reinforce stereotypes and endanger certain minorities, compromise people’s liberties or reduce human dignity to data and AI.
Photo by Peter Scherbatykh on Unsplash
Our Methodology
For our list of the 25 most dangerous countries in the world in 2022, we’ve defined a dangerous country as one with a high crime rate, high levels of political instability and general violence. For this purpose, we’ve used data from the Global Peace Index (GPI) 2022 by the Economics and Peace Organization.
The Global Peace Index measures the danger in countries on a scale of 1 to 5, with higher scores relating to higher danger. It accounts for factors like political instability, violent crime rate, external conflict, intensity of internal conflict and terrorism etc. However, as it additionally also accounts for factors that are irrelevant insofar as danger goes, we’ve used data from sources like The World Bank and Insight Crime as well.
25. Kenya
GPI Score: 2.30
Kenya is dangerous enough for the State Department to warn the US citizens to exercise caution when traveling to the country due to terrorist incidents and violent crime in areas of Turkana and the Kenya-Somalia border.
24. Mozambique
GPI Score: 2.31
Mozambique is the 24th most dangerous country in the world. While it is not as dangerous as many other countries on the list, the US State Department still recommends caution due to rampant incidents of mugging in the country. Some districts in the province of Cabo Delgado are also threatened with terrorism.
23. Burundi
GPI Score: 2.47
Burundi is a landlocked country located in Southeast Africa. Petty as well as violent crimes are common throughout the country. It is also subject to armed attacks carried out by groups operating out of the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in the provinces of Cibitoke and Bubanza, close to the border with the DRC and Rwanda.
22. Eritrea
GPI Score: 2.49
Eritrea, officially called the State of Eritrea, is a country located in the Horn of Africa. According to the Organized Crime Index, the estimated prevalence of human trafficking in Eritrea is the highest in all of Africa. In addition, the country’s remote areas are full of landmines.
21. Chad
GPI Score: 2.59
Chad is a landlocked country in Africa. The north and east of the country are home to a number of paramilitary organizations and insurgents. These organizations engage in numerous forms of trafficking, including human trafficking. In the extreme north and east of the nation, there is a profusion of unorganized bandits, outlaws, robbers, and road gangs.
20. Burma
GPI Score: 2.63
Burma is located in Southeast Asia. Many organized and dangerous armed groups operate in the country, with the United-Wa-State-Army being the largest group. Burma’s military is also known to be notoriously brutal, and involved in criminal activities.
19. Niger
GPI Score: 2.65
Niger is a landlocked country located in West Africa. It is rampant with petty crime, homicides, terrorism and political turmoil. Terrorists are active throughout northern Niger and in the regions bordering Burkina Faso, Mali, and Libya. Crime is especially high in the Niger capital, Niamey.
18. Cameroon
GPI Score: 2.70
Cameroon is located in Central Africa and is one of the most dangerous countries in the world in 2022, mainly due to terrorism and crime. Boko Haram, a terrorist organization active in the country, carries out criminal activities like kidnapping-for-ransom, burglary and extortion, to finance its operations.
Members of secessionist organizations also operate as criminal organizations in the Southwest and Northwest regions of Cameroon, where they intimidate business owners with violence to extract money.
17. Nigeria
GPI Score: 2.72
Nigeria is the most populous country from Africa to make it to the list of most dangerous countries in the world in 2022. It is home to multiple criminal syndicates like Area Boys and Black Axe. Crimes of both violent and petty nature are common throughout the country, in addition to terrorist incidents carried out by Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa.
16. Colombia
GPI Score: 2.72
Colombia is located in Latin America. The country is home to powerful organized criminal syndicates as well as warring paramilitary groups running abound due to weak rule of law.
15. Burkina Faso
GPI Score: 2.78
Burkina Faso is a landlocked country located in West Africa. It is rife with terrorism, particularly from the terror group Alqaeda, which targets both the government as well as the civilians.
The entire East and Sahel regions, the provinces of Kossi and Sourou, Kenedougou and Koulpelogo in the Center-East region have all been under a state of emergency enforced by the government due to violence.
14. Venezuela
GPI Score: 2.78
Venezuela is located in South America and is one of the most dangerous countries in the world in 2022. Its homicide rate was the highest recorded in the world in 2020, at 60 per 100,000 individuals. Various violent organized criminal groups operate in the country. A homegrown one is Megabandas, born out of prisons. According to Insight Crime, the armed forces of Venezuela are also involved in criminal activity.
13. Ethiopia
GPI Score: 2.80
Ethiopia is another country from the Horn of Africa. It is one of the most dangerous countries in the world in 2022, due to terrorism, and rising crime due to weak rule of law. Various terror groups like Boko Haram, Al-Shabab and Fano attack both the government and civilians. Its Tigray, Amhara and Afar region are especially embroiled in violence.
12. Mali
GPI Score: 2.91
Mali, another African country, experiences significant violence and crime throughout its territory. The main active terror groups include Al-Shabab and Boko Haram.
11. Libya
GPI Score: 2.91
Libya is a North African country that has been embroiled in civil strife since the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi. In western and central Libya, there has been a considerable increase in armed conflict since April 2019, occurring frequently.
10. North Korea
GPI Score: 2.94
North Korea is a rogue state in East Asia and as such, has a dangerous government that is hostile to the world. As per BBC reports, roughly 120,000 people are believed to be detained in the country without a fair trial. A prominent case was the detention of Otto Warmbier, an American student, in 2016.
The US Department of Defense is actively awarding contracts to companies like Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) and Raytheon Technologies Corporation (NYSE:RTX) to develop hypersonic technology to deter countries like North Korea, which are testing their own hypersonic missiles.
9. Sudan
GPI Score: 3
Sudan is located in Southeast Africa and happens to be one of the most dangerous countries in the world in 2022. Violence is still a major problem along the Chad-Sudan border and areas that border South Sudan, like the disputed Abyei area. Opposition militias are actively engaged in Central Darfur and South Kordofan states.
8. Central African Republic
GPI Score: 3.02
The Central African Republic, as the name suggests, is in Central Africa. It is one of the most dangerous countries in the world in 2022 owing to excessive cases of violent crime and the ongoing civil war between the government and rebel coalition.
7. Somalia
GPI Score: 3.12
Somalia is another African country on the list. There’s an long-running civil war in Somalia which has fragmented the state, and criminal and terror groups run abound in the country.
6. Iraq
GPI Score: 3.15
Iraq is located in the middle-east. The country has been gripped by conflict ever since the US invasion in 2003. It is subject to terror attacks by Alqaeda and ISIS.
The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 saw the combat use of many military capabilities developed in part, with the help of companies like Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) and Raytheon Technologies Corporation (NYSE:RTX).
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Disclosure: none. 25 Most Dangerous Countries in the World in 2022 is originally published on Insider Monkey.