Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (NYSE:ARE) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript January 31, 2023
Operator: Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alexandria Real Estate Equities 2022 Fourth Quarter and Yearend Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the conference over to Paula Schwartz with Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Paula Schwartz: Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. This conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. The company’s actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the company’s periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. I’d now like to turn the call over to Joel Marcus, Executive Chairman and Founder. Please go ahead, Joel.
Joel Marcus: Thank you, Paula, and welcome everybody. With me today, are Hallie Kuhn, Peter Moglia and Dean Shigenaga. Want to thank you for joining Alexandria’s fourth quarter and yearend 2022 earnings call and wishing you a safe and healthy new year. And thank you to our Alexandria family team members for their continued operational excellence across all facets of our unique business platform. A truly mission-driven, one-of-a-kind company. We have truly exceptional fourth quarter and 2022 yearend results and by any and all metrics, we’re very proud, thankful, and humbled, while many public recording companies ever really struggled mightily during this past year. I’d like to take a moment to tick off what I consider to be some of the most notable news for Alexandria.
Truly amazing that Alexandria has delivered approximately 8.5% FFO per share earnings growth while continuing to strengthen our fortress balance sheet, the strongest in our history and Dean will give you more details on that. Against the backdrop of a very deleterious macro-market in this 2022 year and really again, nothing short of operational excellence to the team. With our highly leased development pipeline and continued strong leasing and Peter will comment on that, Alexandria is well positioned to deliver strong earnings growth again in 2023. We have continued to create long-term shareholder value with a total shareholder return from IPO through the end of this — end of the year, December 31, 2022 of 1673% compared to the MSCI read index of 684%, S&P 500 of 628% and NASDAQ 838%.
So a wide margin upbeat. Alexandria continues to produce stable, increasing, long duration cash flows and an increasing dividend. We’re very proud of our approximately 1,000 client tenant base, a one of a kind treasurer that continues to generate remarkable demand for our Alexandria lab space and Peter and Dean will highlight more on this, but again, two million square feet leased in fourth quarter, over eight million for the year and almost 18 million for the last two years with rental rate increases last year of about 22% on a cash basis. Pretty amazing stats and we’re very proud of our own tenant base, which is generated by far and away the majority of that lease space. 4Q ’22 and yearend 2022 was another strong quarter by all fundamental financial metrics and a few others and Dean will highlight some of this, almost 100% — almost a 100% on collections from a very strong and durable tenant base and very proud of almost 95% occupancy and we put in I think very strong same-store performance both for the quarter and the year.
Innovation in medicine is but must continue to be a national imperative. One in four of us will develop a neurodegenerative disease. Nearly 40% of adult men and women will be diagnosed with cancer during their lifetimes. One in five in the nation’s population suffers from mental illness and we’re continuing to see over a 100,000 deaths due to overdose last year, despite all of the efforts that certainly this company has made with our Dayton project, but just a literally a war out there, which does not seem to be in check and governments at the federal, state and local level need to double down with the vast amount of resources that have been appropriated over the last few years and really focus on this mental health issue. A comment about our successful and continuing value harvesting and recycling of our precious capital, Peter will detail that, but amazingly stellar 2022 with $2.2 billion successfully harvested and then reinvested in a highly disciplined, disciplined manner and Peter and Dean will also comment on the excellent and steady progress we’ve made year to date, just one month in to our 2023 business plan for value harvesting and capital recycling and we’re very optimistic about that.
And then before I pass it over to Hallie, want to particularly call out and thank our particularly call out and thank our finance team and all those who had a hand in the impressive balance sheet accomplishment set forth on Page XB of our supplement. I am very proud that we once again have the strongest balance sheet in the company’s history. So with that, I’m going to turn it over to Hallie for further comments.
Hallie Kuhn: Thank you, Joel and good afternoon, everyone. This is Hallie Kuhn, SVP of science and technology and capital markets. Today, I’m going to provide a recap of the life science industry coming out of 2022 and now into 2023 and how our highly unique approximately a 1,000 tenants remain resilient through the volatility of the current macroeconomic environment. As Joel mentioned, and as we often talk about, the 90% of 10,000 diseases remains an incredible opportunity and unmet need. And the fact is, many of these that do have treatments are far from solved. Take type 1 diabetes. While it was a death sentence before the discovery of insulin over 100 years ago, it still carries an immense burden. A person with type 1 diabetes makes on average 180 health-related decisions a day, some of which have life or death consequences.
Now looking back at 2022, the stats truly speak for themselves regarding the enduring strength of the life science industry, of which I’ll highlight 3. First, despite widespread commentary that VC funding hit the pause button in 2022, life science venture deals totaled nearly $58 billion. Other than 2021’s record year, it was the second highest amount of capital ever deployed. Of note, over 70% of VC dollars deployed went into an Alexandria cluster, and with VC funds across tech and life science raising nearly $160 billion in 2022, a record eclipsing 2021 is $150 billion, significant dry powder is on hand to deploy over a multiyear time horizon. Second, large pharma continues to be 1 of the best performing sectors in the market. In a year where total returns for market indices such as the NASDAQ and Dow ended the year down 10%, the top 20 biopharma ended the year up an average 12%, with 8 of the top 20 pharma ending the year with total returns over 20%.
With historic levels of cash on hand, over $300 billion to deploy into R&D and M&A, biopharma has the firepower to continue to innovate and grow. And last, the pipeline of early innovation to commercialization continues to deliver to patients, with 37 novel FDA small molecule and biologic approvals, three gene therapy approvals and a novel cell therapy approval, of which nearly half were developed by Alexandria tenants. Moving to Alexandria’s unrivaled life science tenant roster; we wanted to provide additional color on our business segments and some examples of Alexandria’s tenants at the forefront of life science innovation. Starting with large pharma, $260 billion was reinvested into R&D in 2021, and analysts estimate that, including leverage, pharma has over $600 billion to deploy into M&A and partnerships.
The next several years, indeed decade are going to be framed by large pharma’s continued pursuit of innovation as product patents expire and new types of medicines such as mRNA and cell therapies transition from large preclinical and clinical pipelines to commercial stage. Alexandria tenant Pfizer is a great example, with preclinical and clinical — sorry, with over 110 programs spanning early to late clinical developments, and an estimated 19 products launching in the next 18 months. The company also noted in their 4Q earnings this morning, they are targeting an additional $25 billion in revenue to come from M&A activity by 2030. Transitioning to public biotech, our tenant base includes the majority commercial stage companies, which brought in nearly $150 billion in revenue in 2021.
Tenants such as Amgen and Vertex have large diversified pipelines, driving long-term growth. As a note, Vertex is also leading the next generation of type 1 diabetes treatment with a novel clinical stage cell therapy that addresses the root cause of diabetes. For clinical-stage biotechnology companies, data is king. And those that have met and will meet clinical milestones in 2023, continue to see stock recovery and ability to access capital through follow-on financings. While the public markets are still recovering, life science follow-on financings reached nearly $17 billion in 2022, which is right on par with the average life science follow-on financings over the past decade. With respect to life science products, service and devices, this segment largely consists of commercial stage tenants.
While not immune to higher interest rates and supply chain challenges, this is a big business segment that both drives and responds to the needs of researchers across academia, biotech and large pharma, which continue to grow and innovate. A notable development in the space is the rapid drop in the price of genome sequencing, driven by a healthy increase in competition. Costing $100 million to sequence a genome in 2001 and diving to $1,000 per genome in 2020, we are now looking at the $200 genome, enabling access to critical sequencing data that saves lives. So where are we headed in 2023? In the face of persistent economic headwinds, all industries are forced to double down on the areas of greatest value. As part of the reset, there are companies that won’t make it, and we’d argue that this, in the long run, is healthy as capital is deployed more efficiently.
There will continue to be further separation of haves and have nots, but companies like those on Alexandria’s tenant roster with differentiated technologies, a clear road map to key inflection points such as generating clinical data and tenured management teams will continue to raise capital. As history has shown time and time again, some of the most successful companies are those created in the depths of a financial downturn. Ultimately, the life science industry is not built on technologies looking for a problem, but instead thousands among thousands of devastating problems, i.e. diseases that this incredibly innovative industry is poised to address over decades to come. To end on a note of hope from former FDA Commissioner, Scott Gotland.
Our ingenuity drives our hopeful innovation, but it’s our compassion for each other that inspires us to apply these advances to the purpose of reducing human suffering. With that, I’ll pass it off to Peter.
Peter Moglia: Thank you, Hallie. 2022 was quite a volatile year in the macro markets, a reminder that all businesses are subject to cycles, some more than others. The pruning we see in the tech industry today is not a surprise to anyone who’s been around since the turn of the century. However, much like a broken bone, it will come back stronger after it heals. Unlike tech, developing products and services to address disease is hard and takes a lot of time, much harder and more time consuming than creating the next app to book a reservation or share recipes. Because of that, there is more discipline in life science investment, a discipline Alexandria has mirrored in our real estate strategy, which is why through the dot-com bust to the financial crisis, to whatever you want to label today’s conditions, our business remains sound, as you can see in our results this quarter and during those historic down cycles.
Despite the macro headlines, we remain optimistic and excited for our business as we are in the early innings of the Golden Age of Biology. We have only had the blueprint of the human genome for 20 years. And in that time, we’ve developed more new modalities to attack disease than in the previous 100. It’s going to be hard, and it’s going to take time, but the industry is going to have options for people with Alzheimer’s. It’s going to perfect technology to detect pancreatic cancer in time to save lives and much, much more. So let’s all remember, it’s hard, it takes time and patience, and then you will understand why life science research and development continues through the proverbial thick and thin of economic cycles, making our business resilient and essential.
With that said, I’ll briefly touch on our development pipeline progress, update you on construction trends, discuss our leasing and update you on investor demand for life science real estate. In 2022, our best-in-class development teams continue to deliver high-quality, purpose-built laboratory space to our tenants on time and on budget in a very challenging construction environment, which I’ll touch on in a moment. During the fourth quarter, we delivered just shy of 500,000 square feet, with $28 million in annual NOI commencing during the quarter. For the year, we delivered 1.77 million square feet spread over 15 development and redevelopment projects, with annual NOI of $119.2 million commencing during the year. Initial stabilized yields for recent deliveries averaged 6.8% and 6.3% on a cash basis, reflecting the healthy contractual annual increases embedded into our leases.
As of year-end, projects under construction and near-term projects expected to commence construction over the next four quarters totaled 7.6 million square feet and are 72% leased. Approximately 77% of that leasing has come from our approximately 1,000 existing tenant relationships. New projects added this quarter include 1450 Owens, which is approximately 213,000 square feet and will be 100% funded by our joint venture partner; and 10075 Barnes Canyon Road in Sorrento Mesa, which will be 50% funded by our joint venture partner. Both projects are under active leasing negotiations. Deliveries primarily commencing from the first quarter of ’23 through the fourth quarter are expected to add $655 million in annual incremental NOI, reflecting a strong pipeline driven by consistent demand even in this volatile time.
Transitioning to leasing, the fourth quarter results continue to demonstrate the strength of our unique one-of-a-kind company, with leasing volume of 2,322 square feet leased in the quarter, the fourth highest total in company history. The 8,405,587 square feet leased for the year is the second highest annual total in company history. And as you can see in the supplemental, the — our guidance for strong mark-to-market growth remains unchanged from Investor Day with a range of 27% to 32% on a GAAP basis and 11% to 16% on cash. These results are certainly reflective of Hallie’s commentary on the strength of VC funding and the stellar 2022 performance of large pharma. With $300 billion in cash on hand, we anticipate further investment in growth from this high-credit tenant sector in 2023.
And the successful conversion of early innovation to commercialization reflected in the 37 FDA approvals in 2022 will incentivize continued investment in new and existing companies that have sound business models and underlying science, a cohort of companies Alexandria has a unique ability to identify. The highest quality life science tenants always consider occupancy in the best assets as an imperative. Their facility and campus are not only used for research and development, but is a critical tool for them to recruit and retain the best scientific and management talent in the world, which is by far their greatest asset. Therefore, demand for Alexandria facilities and our unrivaled mega campuses remains healthy as the facilities are A+, and our operational excellence is highly sought after.
Moving to construction cost trends. At a high level, it appears the construction industry is on the cusp of slowing down. One of the leading economic indicators of the industry is the AIA Architectural Billings Index that leads nonresidential construction activity by nine to 12 months. Design work is at the front end of projects, so architects are the first consultants to slow down. Recent numbers show the 3% moving average heading towards no growth in billings, and commentary from the AIA was that fewer clients are expressing interest in starting new projects. For the first time since the postpandemic restart of construction projects, which was the genesis of significant cost inflation and supply chain problems, we’re starting to see some signs of materials pricing flattening out and general contractors and subcontractors looking for work.
That said, there are still items such as aluminum, rebar, copper and glass of 16% to 21% over this time last year, and it’s still very difficult to obtain electrical switchgear, emergency generators, building controls and smart air handling units because despite an improvement in availability of chips, there are more products using chips than ever before so demand for them is still ahead of supply. Laboratory buildings are heavy consumers of these hard-to-get items so to keep a laboratory construction project on time and on budget is a difficult task. Alexandria has the Intel and experience needed to make quick decisions and relationships with critical vendors to ensure we have access to the materials and labor needed to meet our schedule and budgets.
Despite the continued construction market pressures, as mentioned, we do believe the industry is on the cusp of slowing down, and we do expect cost escalations to reflect that in 2023, reducing from 9% to 10% — from the range of 9% to 10% experienced in 2022 to 4% to 6% in 2023. However, the $2.3 trillion infrastructure spend over the next eight years will continue to put pressure on costs and labor so we will continue to conservatively underwrite and manage our value creation projects. As of the end of the year, 81% of our active development and redevelopment projects, aggregating 5.6 million square feet, are under GMP or other fixed contracts, which is consistent with the run rate we have maintained during these volatile times. Anticipating year-end volatility in the real estate investment markets, we completed our 2022 value harvesting and asset recycling efforts in the third quarter with impeccable execution as we laid out at Investor Day.
Overall, we completed $2.2 billion of value harvesting, with the improved properties achieving a weighted average cap rate of 4.4%, realizing a total gain of $1.2 billion and a value creation margin of 107%. This is a tremendous achievement considering the volatile interest rate environment in 2022 with many real estate investors on the sidelines. It speaks to the desirability of our assets, which are in the best markets with high-quality tenants and managed with operational excellence. High-quality life science assets are scarce, and that is reflected in the pricing. We have started working on, and are making good progress on 2023 value harvesting and asset recycling, and we’ll update you on that next quarter. But in the meantime, we’d like to report on three notable non-Alexandria sales that illustrate that there is still strong demand for life science real estate product.
The first is the sale of 1828 El Camino Real and in the Bay Area. Anchored by three non-credit life science tenants, the property is 98% leased, but is extremely low quality, with limited window line, no shipping and receiving, no backup power and venting through the windows to get adequate HVAC. Despite this, an investor paid $902 per square foot for this asset at a cap rate of 5.8%. The second trade was in the Route 128 submarket of Lexington, where a single non-credit tenant occupied 101,310 square foot manufacturing building at 20 McGuire Road sold in October for $878 per square foot and a 6.2% cap rate. The third comp, which closed last week, is an R&D campus known as the Gauge and Center Point in the Route 128 submarket of Waltham. It traded for $983 per square foot and a 5% cap rate.
It was reported that some of that — some vacancy existed at that property and that the stabilized return is likely to be in the high 5s. As the Fed continues to pull levers to battle inflation, we expect we will see cap rates move up, but much less on a relative basis to other product types, and thus we remain well positioned to fund our value creation pipeline efficiently and at a relatively attractive pricing by harvesting our value creation among other sources. With that, I’ll pass it over to Dean.
Dean Shigenaga: Thanks, Peter. Dean Shigenaga here. Good afternoon, everyone. We’ll jump right in here. Our team is very pleased to have the strongest balance sheet in the company’s history as of December 31. And this really is a result of disciplined execution of liability management year-to-year over the past decade. Our key highlights include, we really have earned our corporate credit ratings that rank in the top 10% of the REIT industry today. We ended the year with tremendous liquidity of $5.3 billion that provides us important flexibility in this macro environment. No debt maturities until 2025, a statement only a small handful of REITs can make today, and a weighted average remaining term of debt at 13.2 years. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 5.1 times on a quarter annualized basis, 5.2x on a trailing 12-month basis.
The fixed charge coverage ratio was very strong at 5.0x, and 99.4% of outstanding debt is subject to fixed interest rates. Our team had outstanding execution in 2022 on our strategic capital plan. Key highlights include $1.8 billion of 12-year and 30-year bonds, with a weighted average rate of 3.28%, the term of 22 years completed in February of 2022. Outstanding execution by our team, as Peter had highlighted, on outright dispositions, partial interest sales, aggregating $2.2 billion, with an amazing $1.2 billion in gains or consideration in excess of booked value, a 4.4% cap rate on cash NOI, all exceptional statistics and significant value creation tap for reinvestment. We had disciplined issuance of common equity with proceeds aggregating $2.5 billion at an average price of $189 per share, including 105 million sold under forward equity sales agreements in December of 2022.
On a blended basis for the year, we felt comfortable executing on the modest $105 million under the equity under forward equity sales agreements in December at roughly $150 per share. Now briefly on the bond market, the beginning of 2023 has been positive for high-quality issuers like Alexandria. Overall pricing for 10-year bonds for Alexandria has significantly improved, and as of yesterday, was in the upper 4% range or just below 5%. For 2023, we will continue to focus on execution of real estate dispositions and partial interest sales or joint ventures for a significant component of our 2023 capital plan. Two transactions are under executed LOI to bring in a partner on a portion of each asset. These transactions will provide approximately $370 million of equity-type capital in 2023, and there are other transactions that we expect to complete this year.
Turning to operating and financial results, really, congratulations to our entire team for outstanding execution this year or in 2022 during a very challenging macro environment. We reported total revenues of $2.6 billion, up 22.5% over 2021, with FFO per share as adjusted of $8.42, up 8.5% over 2021, and outperforming our initial outlook for 2022 of $8.36 by $0.06, and ahead of consensus, both for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2022. Now diving into key highlights from our truly amazing operating and financial results for 2022. Strong rental rate growth, leasing volume and occupancy growth drove record same-property NOI growth in 2022 of 6.6% and 9.6% on a cash basis, exceeding our 10-year average same-property NOI growth prior to 2022 of 6% and 2.9% on a cash basis.
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The last four years of rental rate growth on lease renewals and releasing the space have been the highest in the company’s history, including rental rate growth of 31% in 2022. Over the last two years, cash rental rate growth has been the highest in the company’s history, including 22.1% for the full year of 2022. Leasing volume in the fourth quarter was robust relative to the quarterly average volume in recent years in the range of 1.1 to 1.3 rentable square feet per quarter, highlighting the continued demand from our client tenants. Now the last two years have generated the two highest annual periods of rentable square feet leased, including 8.4 million rentable square feet in 2022. three out of the last four quarters represented the highest quarterly periods of rentable square feet leased, including two million square feet in the fourth quarter.
Now turning to occupancy, occupancy was up 80 basis points since the beginning of 2021 to 94.8% as of December 31. Now looking forward into 2023, we expect a slight decline in occupancy in the first half of the year, with recovery expected in the second half of the year. We had a similar dip in occupancy in 2022, specifically overall strong occupancy in the year, but we did have a 40-basis-point decline from the first quarter of ’22 to the third quarter of ’22. For 2023, we expect temporary vacancy beginning in the first quarter related to spaces that, on average, are expected to generate significant rental rate growth, greater than 60% on a cash basis. Now these spaces are forecasted for occupancy over the next five quarters. This includes a mix of small redevelopment space, i.e., the first time conversion to lab space, normal lease expirations and a few early tenant departures.
Importantly, consistent with our general quarter-to-quarter growth in FFO per share for many years, we expect quarter-to-quarter growth in FFO per share in 2023. Now a few other key highlights. 90% of our annual rental revenue is from investment-grade or large-cap publicly traded companies within our top 20 tenants, highlighting the high-quality list of client tenants that our team has curated over the years. 99.4% of collections of January rent through January 27, just highlighting the continued strength of rent collections. And we had a very strong adjusted EBITDA margin of 69%, highlighting execution of operational excellence by our team. Cash flows from operating activities after dividends for 2023 is expected to be very strong at $375 million at the midpoint of our guidance, and will continue to support growth in our annual common stock dividends per share.
Our FFO payout ratio was very solid at 58% for the fourth quarter. And at this pace, cash flows from operating activities after dividends, over the next three years, should generate over $1 billion and that’s an amazing statistic and very efficient capital for reinvestment. Now turning to a couple of important real estate highlights. Construction in progress, otherwise known as CIP is forecasted to peak in the first quarter, then declined slightly through 2023 as the dollar amount of deliveries are expected to exceed additions to CIP quarter-to-quarter, highlighting the significant volume of deliveries over the next couple of years. As Peter had highlighted, we have 7.6 million rentable square feet of projects that are 72% leased and projected to generate $655 million of incremental net operating income over the next three years.
In the fourth quarter, we recognized impairments aggregating $26.2 million on real estate, primarily related to a few assets we plan to sell in 2023. Each asset is small and represents noncore assets no longer strategic for Alexandria to own. And to put this into perspective, the book value of assets held for sale was approximately $120 million as of December 31. The key takeaway is that from time to time, we review our asset base and proceed with selective sales that continue to enhance the quality of the remaining asset base. Briefly on venture investments. FFO per share as adjusted over the last 2 years has included an average of $103 million of realized gains each year from venture investments, or approximately $26 million per quarter. Now quarterly gains from venture investments in 2023 are expected to be up slightly in comparison to this recent quarterly run rate.
As of December 31, 2022, we had gross unrealized gains of $506 million on a cost basis of $1.15 billion, highlighting significant value in our venture investment portfolio. Now investments in our venture portfolio have been very modest, at less than $70 million in aggregate over the last five years, including $20.5 million that we recognized in the fourth quarter. Turning to guidance. We reaffirm guidance for 2023 that was initially provided in connection with our Annual Investor Day on November 30 with 1 minor update. We updated excess cash held from bond proceeds to $300 million, representing a $50 million increase from the midpoint of our prior guidance. Our 2023 guidance for EPS diluted is a range from $3.41 to $3.61, and FFO per share as adjusted diluted is a range from $8.86 to $9.06 with no change in the midpoint of $8.96.
Now under the current common stock distribution agreement we have in place, otherwise known as our ATM program, we have approximately 142 remaining available. We expect to file a new program in the first quarter of ’23. Please refer to Page 6 of our supplemental package for detailed underlying assumptions included in our strong outlook for the full year of 2023. With that, let me turn it back to Joel.
Joel Marcus: Thank you. Operator, you can open it up for questions, please.
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