Housing Prices Won’t Drop Much Longer

Whether the data we cover today is good or bad news depends on your situation. 

If money is an object and you’re currently house hunting, none of the data looks great. But if you’re dead set on buying, you might not want to wait much longer, even with interest rates persistently in the 6-to-7% range. 

The Juice covered the mortgage part of the story last week. Today, we focus on home prices, because CoreLogic released some interesting data. 

Where Home Prices Are Headed

Year over year (YoY), home prices are still up nearly 6% nationally. In its Q4 2022 report, CoreLogic made two pertinent predictions: 

• Nationally, home prices will drop YoY around April. 
• They’ll quickly recover, finishing 2023 near their all-time record from June 2022: a national median of around $450,000.

The Juice actually made a similar prediction in January when we argued that 2023’s biggest surprise would be a massive housing rebound. 

Note: This data varies depending on who puts it out and when/how they measure it. This week, the National Association of Realtors reported that the median sale price of an existing home last month dropped 0.2% YoY, to $363,000. That’s the first annual decline in almost 11 years. At the same time, the NAR notes that sales of previously owned homes (not new construction) skyrocketed 14.5% in February, adding bite to our thesis that any dip in prices won’t last long. 

The Juice likes to assess all the data to get a broad view of the housing landscape. 

And however you slice the data, you’re in a conundrum if you’re sitting on the sidelines. Buy now and face inflated monthly payments, or buy later and face further inflated house prices? 

Nobody’s sitting prettier than pre-2022 homeowners. 

Source: CoreLogic

This map from CoreLogic shows each state’s average home equity gain (or loss) between 2021 and 2022. 

Home equity fell for homeowners in just four states (California, Washington, Idaho, and Utah) in 2022. Nationally, home equity was up an average of $14,300 everywhere else. Florida led the pack with a home equity gain of just over $49,000.  

Things don’t look as pretty when you compare 2022’s Q1 and Q4. Most of these home equity gains occurred in the first half of last year. The typical U.S. homeowner sat on a $61,300 home equity gain in Q1, considerably more impressive than the $14,300 YoY number. 

That said, if CoreLogic is correct, any 2023 decrease in home equity will be short-lived. If you’re looking to sell, high time might come at the end of this year, beginning of next. 

The Bottom Line: Homeowners who bought when interest rates were sub-6% (April to September 2022), sub-5% (February to April 2022), and sub-4% (2020 to January 2022) are sitting prettiest and should probably stay put. 

If households in this group want to sell and buy new homes, they’ll be best off doing it when mortgage rates drop to more manageable levels and housing prices move back into record-high territory. Even better if this class of homeowner sells in an expensive market and uses the proceeds and their buying power to buy again in a less expensive one. 

Want some ideas on less expensive places to live? Hit up yesterday’s Juice.

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