A brief excerpt:
Last October I wrote: Some “Good News” for Homebuilders
I noted:
[T]he good news for the homebuilders is activity usually picks up quickly following an interest rate induced slowdown (as opposed to following the housing bust when the recovery took many years).
I included the following graph to illustrate this point. The following graph shows new home sales for three periods: 1978-1982, 2005-2020, and current (red). The prior peak in sales is set to 100 (updated through the February New Home sales release).
…
My sense is this downturn will have some similarities to the 1980 period, see: Housing: Don’t Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust
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