– Fed Powell’s comments help sink Loonie.
– Month, quarter, and half-year rebalancing flows distorting markets.
– US dollar eases lower compared to Wednesday’s close.
USDCAD snapshot: open 1.3224-28, overnight range 1.3191-1.3233, close 1.3192, WTI $68.21, Gold $1908.11.
The Canadian dollar opened defensively yesterday and continued to slide throughout the session but found a floor in Asia overnight.
Yesterday, the Canadian dollar was swept up amidst widespread US dollar demand following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the ECB Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal. Mr. Powell broadly hinted that the Fed would raise interest rates at the July and September FOMC meetings.
The Fed Chair stated, “Although policy is restrictive, it may not be restrictive enough, and it has not been restrictive for long enough.” His remarks contradict the market view that a July hike would be the last hike for this cycle.
FX traders took Mr. Powell at his word and bought US dollars across the board. Equity traders dismissed his comments, and Wall Street closed with little change. Bond traders stayed close to home, and the US 10-year yield was 3.712% at the close.
The overnight session was more of the same, without any new catalysts to inspire trading. Asian equity indexes closed with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gaining 0.12%, while Australia’s ASX 200 closed flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was the big loser and finished down 1.24%. In Europe, the major indices are posting small gains, except for the UK FTSE 100, which is down 0.19%.
The Canadian dollar is ignoring oil price swings. West Texas Intermediate bounced in a $69.00-$70.00/b range, with hopes for a rebound in Chinese oil demand and concerns about a US recession vying for dominance.
EURUSD traded with a bid in a 1.0882-1.0936 range, and prices are looking to extend the gains in NY. Traders are awaiting today’s US GDP and weekly jobless claims data for guidance.
GBPUSD rallied from 1.2616 to 1.2663 as traders decided that yesterday’s reaction to Bank of England Governor Bailey’s somewhat dovish comments was overdone.
USDJPY is trading at the bottom of its 144.14-144.69 range, but the trend is still higher due to the Bank of Japan’s dovish monetary policy stance, while FX intervention fears slow the rise.
AUDUSD bounced in a 0.6597-0.6629 range, supported by better-than-expected Australian retail sales (actual 0.7% m/m, vs forecast 0.1%).
Today’s US data includes Q1 GDP (forecast 1.3%), weekly jobless claims (forecast 265,000), and Pending Home sales (forecast 0.2%)