As usual, there is a wide range of estimates early in the quarter. GDPNow’s estimate is probably way too high.
From BofA:
Next week, we will initiate our 3Q US GDP tracker with the July retail sales data.
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.5% (qoq ar) [Aug 8th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.1 percent on August 8, up from 3.9 percent on August 1. [Aug 8 estimate]