– Canadian employment data on tap.
– Opec deepens production cuts.
– US dollar consolidating recent losses ahead of Fed Chair Powell speech.
USDCAD: open 1.3525-29, overnight range 1.3518-1.3576, close 1.3590, WTI $76.21, Gold, $2043.66
The Canadian dollar received an unexpected boost after yesterday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure price index data indicated further moderation in US inflation. Core PCE inflation, one of Fed Chair Powell’s favorite metrics, ticked down to 0.2% from 0.3%, or 3.5% year-over-year. This data added another layer of support to the US “soft landing” argument.
The news helped propel the S&P 500 index to a 7.8% gain while keeping the US 10-year Treasury yield around 4.35% at the close.
Canadian dollar traders ignored news that Canada’s economy shrank by 1.1% in Q3, which was worse than expected. However, the negative sentiment was tempered because the Q2 results were revised sharply higher. Instead of -0.2, Q2 grew at 1.2%.
Canada is expected to have gained 15,000 jobs in November, which isn’t bad except the government is bringing in around 40,000 immigrants each month. Even worse, it is in the middle of a housing crisis where even space for a tent on a sidewalk near a local Tim Hortons is at a premium.
The domestic data will take a back seat to expected comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the US interest rate outlook when he speaks in Atlanta at 11:00 am ET. Bearish US dollar traders hope he doesn’t echo San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s comments. Yesterday, she warned that it was too early to know if the Fed is done hiking rates, saying she wasn’t thinking about rate cuts.
EUR/USD traded in an uninspiring 1.0873-1.0913 range with upside moves hampered by expectations that the ECB will cut rates in April.
ECB President Lagarde pushed back against that view today, saying, “Fiscal policies that create excess demand in a supply-constrained economy might force monetary policy to tighten more than would otherwise be necessary.”
GBP/USD chopped around in a 1.2615-1.2675 range, getting a bit of support on news that the Nationwide Housing Price Index rose 0.2% month-over-month in November, compared to expectations for a 0.4% decline.
USD/JPY rallied in a 147.61-148.32 band. November Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 48.3 from 48.1 in October, and the unemployment rate fell to 2.5% from 2.6%.
AUD/USD firmed in a 0.6151-0.6192 range due to the generally soft US dollar and higher-than-expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Today’s US data includes US ISM Manufacturing PMI and construction spending.