– Loonie pressured by weak crude prices.
– US interest rate outlook is confused after Friday’s data.
– US dollar opens mixed-CAD underperforms.
USDCAD: open 1.3371-75, overnight range 1.3346-1.3381, close 1.3349, WTI $72.62, Gold, $2040.16
The Canadian dollar rallied sharply following Friday’s ISM data, which did little to alleviate concerns about the Federal Reserve’s rate cut pace which may not be as rapid or deep as traders anticipated. Despite the Canadian employment data showing an unchanged unemployment rate and an increase in average hourly earnings, the Canadian dollar did not see much benefit.
Additionally, weakening oil prices are undermining the Canadian dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell from $73.94 per barrel on Friday to $71.53 today. The drop was fueled by Saudi Aramco’s decision to reduce the price of Arab light crude to Asian clients by $2.00 per barrel, effective February 1.
Traders are adjusting their expectations regarding U.S. interest rates following Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 216,000, and average hourly earnings grew by 0.1% to 4.1% on a yearly basis, while the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7% against a forecast of 3.8%. This data dampened expectations of a rate cut by March, suggesting a prolonged period of higher rates.
Asia opened quietly as Japan was closed for a holiday and stocks closed with losses. Australia’s ASX index fell 0.50% while China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index plunged 1.29%. European bourses are underwater but marginally so while S&P 500 futures are flat.
EURUSD is trading within its 1.4409-1.4493 range, following a turbulent overnight session. Mixed German factory orders (0.3% month-over-month but -4.4% year-over-year) were offset by stronger-than-anticipated trade data (Exports at 3.7% month-over-month, Imports at 1.9%). Gold extended overnight losses and is sitting at $2022.38.
GBPUSD fell from 1.2731 to 1.2673 before recovering to 1.2706 in early New York trading. With no significant UK data released, the pound sterling’s movements were driven by Euro and the U.S. dollar sentiment.
The USDJPY fluctuated within a 144.09-144.93 range, influenced by the Japanese holiday and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which moved between 4.02% and 4.07% overnight.
AUDUSD is at the lower end of its 0.6682-0.6735 range, pressured by concerns over Chinese economic growth and the possibility of U.S. interest rates staying unchanged for an extended period.
The US and Canadian data calendars are empty.