In this article, we will be taking a look at the 17 fastest-declining cities in the US. If you want to skip reading our analysis of the impact of housing shortage and high taxation on population decline in the US, you can go directly to see the 5 Fastest-Declining Cities in the US.
Impact of High Taxes and Unaffordable Housing on Population Decline
A report by the US Census Bureau, reflecting the migration data between US states and cities, shows that people have migrated from high-tax states to low-tax states in significant numbers. These interstate estimates provided by the Bureau clearly show that a larger number of people are migrating from central cities in favor of smaller cities. New York lost 1.1% of its population between 2022 and 2023. Additionally, Hawaii and Alaska lost 0.8% of their populations, California 0.9%, and Illinois 0.7%. The primary factors for these population shifts are the high taxes and high cost of living in these metropolitan cities. Tax burdens and expensive housing, as a combination, force people to move to lower-income-tax states. Real estate data provided by ATTOM reported the increase in property taxes on single-family homes in the US. From $328 billion in 2021, the taxes increased by 3.6% and reached $339.8 billion in 2022.
Coupled with high taxes, the high cost of housing is a crucial factor that leads to mass migration in the US. The Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) of the Current Population Survey (CPS) by the US Census Bureau surveyed the factors impacting people’s decision to shift within the US. The survey highlighted that cheaper housing, wanting ownership of their property, and spacious housing were some of the main reasons people chose to change cities. Meanwhile, employment-related concerns were another crucial factor that led to migration to other states as well. COVID-19 had a significant impact on migration trends between 2020 and 2021. A large percentage of people shifted from central metropolitan cities to smaller and less populated regions. The shift in work environments and the availability of work-from-home options also play a crucial role in allowing people to explore their options. Such working conditions allow people to consider more options without tying themselves to bigger cities only due to their office’s proximity. You might also be interested in learning about the 20 Most Affordable Housing Markets in the US in 2023 or 30 Countries with Most Affordable Housing in the World.
Prominent Housing Companies in the US
Let’s look at the recent updates from some major housing companies in the US, including Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVCO), Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL), and NVR, Inc. (NYSE:NVR). If you’re interested in learning about housing markets across the globe, here are the 20 Most Expensive Housing Markets in the World.
Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVCO) is a home builder, mortgage lender, and insurance company. The company provides services such as manufacturing homes, cabins, R.V.s, and modular homes and also financing services to buy homes. On December 8, 2023, Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVCO) announced its latest project ‘The Anthem’, a collaboration with the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development. The project is aimed at tackling the affordable housing crisis by creating modular and manufactured homes in multiple units. There would be several configurations of duplexes available for construction across the US.
Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) is a luxury home builder for urban and suburban properties. With a business that extends to 24 states, the company owns several mortgage, insurance, and architectural subsidiaries as well. On December 13, 2023, Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) announced its newest addition to the company’s Board of Directors, Judith A. Reinsdorf and Katherine M. Sandstorm. Reinsdorf was previously serving as the executive vice president at Johnson Controls International plc, a building products and technology company. Sandstrom serves as the chair of the board of Health Peak Properties, Inc., a real estate developer for healthcare delivery. In addition to the two women joining Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL), Carl B. Marbach will be stepping down from the Board in March 2024.
NVR, Inc. (NYSE:NVR) is another major residential construction company that deals with mortgage banking and homebuilding. The company’s construction operations extend to 15 states and focus on urban development. On January 30, NVR, Inc. (NYSE:NVR) reported earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2023. The company reported earnings per share of $121.56 and outperformed EPS estimates by $0.06. The company’s revenue for the quarter amounted to $2.39 billion. As of February 9, the stock has surged nearly 50% over the past 12 months.
Let’s now take a look at the 17 fastest-declining cities in the US.
Mobile homes in a manufactured home park. Front yard.
Methodology
In this article, we have listed 17 fastest-declining cities in the US. We have ranked the cities using data collected by the US Census Bureau which provided us a list of annual population estimates for over 800 US cities. We used data obtained for 2020, 2021 and 2022. We calculated the percentage change in population from 2020 to 2022 for the cities listed and selected the top 17 US cities that faced the highest decline. We have listed the 17 fastest-declining cities in the US below in ascending order of their percentage decline in population between 2020 and 2022.
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17 Fastest-Declining Cities in the US
17. Fort Myers, Florida
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -9.94%
First up on our list of the 17 fastest-declining cities in the US is Fort Myers in Florida. The city is a popular tourist destination because of its significant history, nature reserves, and beaches. The percentage change in population in Fort Myers was -9.94% between 2020-2022.
16. Casa Grande, Arizona
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -10.92%
Casa Grande in Arizona state ranks 16 on our list of the fastest-declining cities in the US. The city is known for its Historic Downtown, Southern Pacific Railroad, and the Domes of Casa Grande, attracting swarms of tourists. The percentage change in population in Casa Grande between 2020-2022 was -10.92%.
15. Cape Coral, Florida
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -11.04%
Cape Coral in Florida is most famous for its various waterways and canals and attracts a large number of tourists each year. There are innumerable restaurants and nature expeditions for visitors to enjoy in Cape Coral. The city had a -11.04% change in population between 2020-2022.
14. Conroe, Texas
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -11.13%
Conroe is located in Montgomery County in Texas state. It is part of the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar metropolitan area. There was a -11.13% change in population in Conroe between 2020-2023.
13. Burleson, Texas
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -11.23%
Burleson is located in the suburbs of Fort Worth Texas. It is a small town with proximity to the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. There was a -11.23% change in population in Burleson between 2020-2022.
12. Port St.Lucie, Florida
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -12.07%
Port St.Lucie in Florida ranks twelfth on our list of the 17 fastest-declining cities in the US. The city has numerous attractions such as the Treasure Coast Model Railroad Club, Botanical Gardens, and water sports at St.Lucie River. There was a -12.07% change in population in Port St.Lucie between 2020-2022.
11. Buckeye, Arizona
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -12.59%
Buckeye is the largest in Arizona state in terms of land and forms part of the Phoenix metropolitan area. The city is surrounded by valleys, hills, and rivers and attracts tourists to its scenic natural beauty. There was a -12.59% change in population in Buckeye between 2020-2022.
10. Maricopa, Arizona
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -12.64%
Ranking tenth on our list of the 17 fastest-declining cities in the US, Maricopa is located in the Phoenix metropolitan area. It is situated in the Gila River Valley of Arizona. There was a -12.64% change in population in Maricopa between 2020-2022.
9. North Port, Florida
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -12.73%
North Port is located in Sarasota County Florida. The city attracts visitors with its warm weather, cultural attractions, and outdoor recreational activities. There was a -12.73% change in population in North Port between 2020-2022.
8. New Braunfels, Texas
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -14.28%
New Braunfels in Texas ranks eighth on our list of the 17 fastest-declining cities in the US. There was a -14.28% change in population in New Braunfels between 2020-2022.
7. Queen Creek Town, Arizona
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -16.15%
Queen Creek Town in Arizona ranks seventh on our list of the 17 fastest-declining cities in the US. It is part of the Phoenix metropolitan area and is a suburb of the city. The percentage change in population in Queen Creek Town has been -16.15% between 2020-2022.
6. Westfield, Indiana
Percentage Change in Population (2020-2022): -16.18%
Ranking sixth on our list of the 17 fastest-declining cities in the US, is Westfield in Indiana. It is a small city, part of the Indianapolis metropolitan area. The city offers a wide range of amenities with its small-town charm. There was a -16.18% change in population in Westfield between 2020-2022.
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Disclosure: None. 17 Fastest-Declining Cities in the US is published on Insider Monkey.