Some of the populists that infest my comment section have challenged my claim that the economy is doing well, despite 51% of the public rating it as “poor”. They suggest that I am arrogant to disagree with the general public. After all, doesn’t the average American understand his or her economic situation better than a pointy headed intellectual?
Yes, they do understand their own situation better than I do. And when asked how they are doing, they tend to respond that their own financial situation is pretty good:
The Axios Vibes poll has found that when asked about their own financial condition, or that of their local community, Americans are characteristically optimistic. . . . 63% of Americans rate their current financial situation as being “good,” including 19% of us who say it’s “very good.” . . . Americans who believe their community’s economy is strong outnumber those who think it’s weak. They’re right.
I agree! The average American only knows a tiny fraction of the 330 million people who live in this huge country. They have only two ways to evaluate the performance of the overall economy—their local situation, and what they read about the national economy in the media. So why are people more negative about the overall economy than they are about their own personal finances? There are several factors at play:
1. The news media is relentlessly negative. Thus people typically praise the school their children attend, even as they suggest that America’s educational system is going down the tubes.
2. One sector of the public is now highly irrational. In recent years, most GOP voters have become completely unhinged. (Look at the lunatic they just overwhelmingly voted for in the North Carolina gubernatorial primary.) When asked how the economy is doing, GOP voters fear that if they say “good” it will be viewed as an endorsement of Biden. Thus they overwhelmingly say “poor”. Dems are also biased, but far less so than Republicans. Ditto for the media. Both sides are biased, but the GOP media is far more biased.
In the past, the loonies were evenly distributed between the two parties. Lots of Dems thought 9/11 was an inside job. But in recent years most of the conspiracy nuts are moving toward the GOP, producing a very unbalanced situation. Indeed belief in absurd conspiracy theories is now almost a requirement if you wish to avoid the label “RINO”. “Of course Trump won the 2020 election!”
Put it all together and you have a situation where polls on the condition of the economy are essentially meaningless. The only poll that matters is the one asking people how they themselves are doing. And by that measure the economy is fine.