– China takes a stand against CNY weakness.
– Key US inflation data due on Thursday.
– US hangs on to gains but opens slightly lower compared to Friday.
USDCAD: open 1.3593-1.3597, overnight range 1.3585-1.3615, close 1.3603, WTI $81.12, Gold, $2168.53
The Canadian dollar is opening with a negative bias following Friday’s sell-off. Broad-based US dollar strength due to expectations that Fed rate cuts will lag those of other central banks have renewed demand for greenbacks.
The Canadian dollar is not getting much benefit from oil prices. West Texas Intermediate crossed over the $80.00/barre threshold last week, but the move did not have much impact on the Loonie. Oil prices are stalled as fears of sluggish Chinese economic growth offset concerns about rising demand do to supply cuts and geopolitical tensions.
The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) pushed back against the sharply weakening Chinese yuan (CNY) by setting the daily fixing rate far below expectations today.(actual fix 7.0996 vs expected 7.2267). For those unfamiliar with China’s currency system; China uses a managed float system for its currency. This means the exchange rate fluctuates within a band around a central point, but the PBoC intervenes in the market to influence the rate. The fixing rate acts as that central point. By setting a fixing rate, the PBoC sends a signal to market participants about the intended level of the CNY exchange rate. This helps to guide market expectations and stabilize short-term fluctuations.
EURUSD traded in a 1.0802-1.0824 range and is at the top of that band in New York. The single currency got a bit of support after the PBOC took steps to strengthen the yuan.
GBPUSD is trading negatively in a 1.2591-1.2623 range, with prices weighed down by the dovish shift at the Bank of England. Analysts expect the first rate cut to occur in August.
USDJPY traded in a 151.05-151.46 range. Traders dismissed a warning from Japan’s Vice Minister of Finance, Masato Kanda, who warned, “The current weakening of the yen is not in line with fundamentals and is clearly driven by speculation. We will take appropriate action against excessive fluctuations, without ruling out any options.”
AUDUSD traded sideways in a 0.6510-0.6544 range due to broad-based US dollar strength while getting a bit of support after China set the CNY fix substantially below expectations.