– FX liquidity falls ahead of Easter weekend.
– No US or Canadian data today.
– US opens narrowly mixed after uneventful overnight session.
USDCAD: open 1.3593-97, overnight range 1.3579-1.3608, close 1.3585, WTI $81.00, Gold, $2189.61
The Canadian dollar is treading water not far from its 2024 low but downside momentum appears to have stalled. A sharp drop in liquidity may be part of the reason as many G-10 financial markets are heading into an extended Easter weekend break, that starts tomorrow.
Traders are also sidelined as they await the release of the Personal Consumption Earnings-price index data that is released on Friday, although most traders will not be at their desks.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell to $80.56/b after the American Petroleum Institute (API) report that crude stocks rose by 9.34 million barrels in the week ending on March 22. It was a sharp jump from the March 13 result of a 1.52 million barrel draw-down. Even so, ongoing supply concerns from hostilities in the Middle East and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure helped lift prices to $81.31/barrel in NY.
Bond traders are quiet and content to leave the US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.24%. Asian equity markets closed with gains, except for those in Hong Kong and mainland China. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gained 0.90% while Australia’s ASX 200 index rose 0.51%. European bourses are poised to end the week and the month in positive territory. The German Dax index has risen 5.17% in the past month. S&P 500 futures are up 0.40%.
EURUSD traded quietly in a 1.0820-1.0839 range. The single currency came under modest pressure after Sweden’s Riksbank left the benchmark rate unchanged but said that rates could be cut in May or June, assuming inflation stabilizes close to its 2.0% target.
GBPUSD drifted in a 1.2609-1.2636 range, with prices supported by the November uptrend line that comes into play at 1.2570. A move above 1.2680 targets 1.2780, then 1.2800.
USDJPY rallied to 151.97 then dropped to 151.10 after overt intervention threats by Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. “We are watching market moves with a high sense of urgency. We will take bold measures against excessive moves without ruling out any options.”
AUDUSD dilly-dallied in a narrow 0.6511-0.6539 range. Inflation held steady in February, rising 3.4% year-over-year (y/y), unchanged from January and a tick lower than expected. The results would have little bearing on RBA interest rate deliberations.