Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 5.8% year-over-year in February, down from 6.1% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Housing (PCE) was up 5.8% YoY in February, down from 6.1% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will continue to slow over the next year.
The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 6 months (annualized):
Key measures are slightly above the Fed’s target on a 6-month basis.
PCE Price Index: 2.5%
Core PCE Prices: 2.9%
Core minus Housing: 2.3%