– Fed expected to adopt a hawkish bias.
– Governor Tiff Macklem address Senate Banking Committee.
– USD opens with a bid, consolidating yesterday’s gains.
USDCAD: open 1.3773, overnight range 1.3767-1.3784, close 1.3780, WTI $80.43, Gold, $2291.93
The Canadian dollar got hammered yesterday along with all the major G-10 currencies after the quarterly US Employment Cost Index rose 1.2%, which was above the 1.0% expected and the 0.9% result previously. Traders quickly downgraded hopes for US rate cuts in 2024,
which drove gold (XAUUSD) from 2336.23 to 2281.74 overnight, while WTI oil dropped to 80.36 from 82.98 yesterday. The US dollar index soared from 105.56 yesterday, pre-data, to 106.38 overnight. A similar move is not likely today, even with the release of the ADP, JOLTS job turnover, and ISM prices paid data because of holidays and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
Canadian dollar losses were exacerbated after Canadian economic growth in February was weaker than expected. February GDP rose 0.2% compared to the forecast for 0.3% growth, and January’s 0.6% result was revised down to 0.5%. The results bolstered the case for the BoC to cut interest rates.
May first means “Holiday” in many countries across the globe. Major markets in Asia and Europe are closed, which resulted in a low volume, low liquidity session overnight.
EURUSD is drifting in a 1.0649-1.0674 band and is near the top of that range in early NY trading. All the major European markets were closed for Labor Day, and traders were content to remain on the sidelines until this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
GBPUSD is in the middle of its 1.2466-1.2500 overnight range. Weaker than expected manufacturing PMI in April (actual 49.1) did not have much impact. An analyst at S&P Global said, “The UK manufacturing sector suffered a renewed downturn in April, as output and new orders contracted following short-lived rebounds in March. The sector is still besieged by weak market confidence, client destocking, and disruptions caused by the ongoing Red Sea crisis.”
USDJPY rallied from 157.65 to 158.04 in a quiet session. The gains were fueled by the prospect of higher US interest rates and by the US 10-year Treasury yield rising from 4.603% yesterday to 4.69% today.
AUDUSD traded defensively in a 0.6465-0.6482 range but garnered a bit of support from the Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI data (actual 49.6, forecast 49.9, March 49.9).
Today’s US data includes ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction spending along with the JOLTS and ADP reports.