– Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10am.
– Producer Prices expected to have risen slightly in April.
– US dollar opens close to where it closed Monday.
USDCAD: open 1.3671, overnight range 1.3663-1.3685, close 1.3668, WTI $79.11, Gold, $2346.06.
The Canadian dollar drifted aimlessly overnight, and it opened the NY session exactly where it opened yesterday. Traders are sidelined ahead of Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index report but hope to gain a little insight from today’s Producer Price Index data.
Global markets are fixated on the outlook for US interest rates. Expectations for 175 bps of rate cuts were prevalent at the beginning of the year. Today, only 50 bps are expected and even those are questionable. The issue is that inflation is far stickier than anticipated. CPI fell sharply from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.0% in June 2023. Since then, prices have ticked higher and Fed officials are afraid that if they cut rates now, CPI will rise.
Today’s Producer Price Index data may provide some insight into Wednesday’s CPI report. PPI is expected to increase to 0.3% m/m from 0.2% in March while Core-PPI is unchanged at 0.2%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is speaking from Amsterdam today but he is not expected to provide any fresh insight into the US rate outlook.
EURUSD traded narrowly in a 1.0775-1.0796 band, supported by slightly better ZEW Economic Sentiment which climbed to 47.1 from 42.9 in March.
GBPUSD churned in a 1.2509-1.2564 range and is at 1.2555 in NY. The low occurred after Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said, “I think it’s not unreasonable to believe that through the summer we will begin to see enough confidence in the decline in persistence that Bank Rate will come into consideration.” The UK jobs data was mixed and was quickly forgotten.
USDJPY traded with a bullish bias, rising from 156.15 to 156.57. The rally forced Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to hint at intervention. He said, “We’ll closely monitor the currency and take all possible measures.” His comments did not have any effect on trading.
AUDUSD drifted in a 0.6598-0.6313 range because traders were content to sit on the sidelines until the US inflation data was available.
Canada Wholesale Sales are expected to have fallen by 1.3% in March.