JPMorgan’s Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli says that given the recent momentum in job growth, it may take the five reports available between now and the November Federal Reserve meeting to “meet the test” of an interest rate cut. The firm now sees the first ease in November, followed by a quarterly cadence of rate cuts next year. It believes a July ease “now looks highly unlikely.” Job growth “rebounded smartly” in May, with nonfarm employment increasing 272,000, the economist tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes says the strong jobs number is overshadow the rising unemployment rate.
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