Barclays notes that Shopify founder and CEO Tobi Lutke posted on X last week, indicating that Shopify had surpassed $1T in cumulative GMV. Based on prior disclosures on cumulative GMV, this implies Q2 GMV of about $53B at the time of the posting. If that pace continues, then Q2 is on pace for just shy of $67B in GMV, which the firm notes would be about 2% upside to current consensus, though the firm warns “this math bakes in some speculative assumptions.” Still, the firm views the tweet as an “encouraging indication” that strong GMV momentum persists and it raised its Q2 estimates consistent with this trend, adding that it thinks this could contribute to an operating income, or OI, beat compared to current consensus expectations in Q2. The firm, which says investor feedback make it seem Q3 OI expectations are “lofty” and that it remains unclear if OI expectations have sufficiently reset lower for FY24, has an Equal Weight rating and $63 price target on Shopify shares.