Since our last weekly publication, 2Q GDP tracking is down from 1.8% q/q saar to 1.7% q/q saar and 1Q GDP came in at 1.4% in the third print. Here is a rundown of changes to our tracking estimate. [June 28th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on net at +1.9% (qoq ar) and lowered our Q2 domestic final sales forecast by 0.4pp to +1.6%. [June 28th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.2 percent on June 28, down from 2.7 percent on June 27. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis , the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.5 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 8.7 percent. [June 28th estimate]