Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in June to 83.7% from 83.6% in May to the highest level since 2001.
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9% YoY in June.
From the BLS report:
“The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million, changed little
in June. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part
time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.“
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.22 million from 4.42 million in May. This is lower than pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.4% from 7.4% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, there are 1.515 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.350 million the previous month.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
Job Streak
| Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 | 2007 | 46 |
| 4 | 1979 | 45 |
| 5 | 20241 | 42 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Summary:
The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however, April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.