I’m certainly no Nostradamus, having incorrectly forecast both the 2016 and 2020 elections. But it seems to me that I have made a number of more general claims that are looking increasingly plausible:
1. I’ve consistently said that Biden is a senile old guy, not fit to be president. (I’ve said the same about Trump, but that’s neither here nor there.) Anyone still doubt me on Biden?
2. In late 2020, I told you that we’d have 12 years of Trump, and most of you thought I was crazy. Indeed most of our so-called expert pundits completely wrote him off after January 6th. I recall people saying there was no need to impeach him because he was so obviously discredited that his career was over. Where are these pundits today?
3. Unlike most Americans, I pay a lot of attention to politics in other countries. I noticed that as the nationalist right gains strength, their views on economics moved sharply to the left, away from free markets. I predicted that this would eventually happen to the GOP. And now we have Vance–the future face of the party. I said that billionaires supporting Trump were making a pact with the devil, and it would come back to haunt them. Most of those guys have no understanding of history, and don’t recall past examples of business leaders supporting authoritarian nationalists as a way of stopping the “Marxists”. How’d that turn out for business? Oh wait, I’m not allowed to play the Nazi card, only people like Vance are allowed to compare Trump to Hitler. Nevermind.
4. You right wingers babble on about “liberty”, but no one believes you. As soon as people like Vance sniff power, they want to use the awesome power of government to crush their opponents. Vance has actually praised the Biden administration’s economic policies. He’s an American Viktor Orban. Here’s Reason:
And he told The American Conservative in 2021 that his voters “hate the right people.”
Lovely.
I never thought I’d look back fondly on Pence, but at least he had the guts to certify the election. Vance is such a disgusting toady that he was willing to say that he would have refused to do so, in order to suck up to Trump. Vance has also said that Trump should disregard Supreme Court rulings. What could go wrong?
5. I’ve said that the Trump/Biden tariffs would not reduce our trade deficit nor would they provide a boost to domestic manufacturing, and they haven’t done either.
6. As far back as the late 2010s, I was saying that our fiscal policy was moving in an unsustainable direction. Even during Covid, most conventional economists were cheering for more fiscal stimulus. Now it’s almost universally viewed as a big mistake, and neither party has a plan to stabilize our public finances. Reckless fiscal policy and protectionism—sounds like Argentina.
7. For years, I’ve been saying that Russia, not China, is the biggest threat to world peace. After the Ukraine invasion, it’s pretty hard to argue I was wrong. No one is happier with the Vance pick than Vladimir Putin. (Vance doesn’t care about Ukraine, and views China as the bigger threat.)
8. A consensus of economists predicted a recession in 2023. I said recessions are unforecastable. I said don’t be fooled by the sharply higher interest rates, it doesn’t mean money is tight.
9. Yes, I did not predict the big inflation surge. That was a failure. But I said the FAIT policy should be symmetrical. The Fed opted for asymmetrical. How’d that work out?
10. I said the UK should not leave the EU. Now the British people have come around to this view, and the Conservative Party has been discredited.
11. I said that high housing prices (2006), high tech stock prices (2000), and high Bitcoin prices (2013) don’t indicate a bubble. Now people realize that supply restrictions are driving house prices, the dynamism of America’s high tech sector is driving tech stock prices, and cryptocurrencies are here to stay. That’s not to say there aren’t ups and downs—but ups and downs are part of an efficient market.
PS. That’s right. As far back as 2013, when Bitcoin had soared to $32, I was pushing back against claims that it was a bubble.
You’re welcome!
PPS. Vance is wrong about Trump voters:
Vance, author of best-selling memoir-turned-movie “Hillbilly Elegy,” said that Trump is a “cynical a**hole” who is “America’s Hitler” that only an “idiot” would vote to the highest office in the country.
Lots of smart people voted for Trump, indeed I know some. I’ve never, ever, ever said all Trump voters were stupid. Vance is such an elitist snob.