– UBS downgrades China 2024 GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.9%.
– US weekly jobless claims may cause a bigger reaction than usual.
– US dollar mostly halts its slide-NZD outperforms.
USDCAD: open1.3456, overnight range 1.3450-1.3483, close 1.3480, WTI $74.44, Gold, $2523.06
The Canadian dollar rally that accelerated on Friday following Fed Chair Powell’s dovish pivot in a speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, has stalled after failing to chop through significant resistance. The rally also ran out of gas due to a lack of traders and fresh catalysts as it is the final week of the summer and the long, Labour Day weekend beckons.
The Canadian dollar has been lifted by relentless and widespread US dollar selling pressure after a few top-tier global investment banks predicted that the Fed would slash its benchmark overnight rate by 50 bps on September 18. However, 66.0% of futures traders from the CBOE only expect a 25 bps rate cut.
Recession chatter could get louder today if this morning’s US data dump disappoints, starting with weekly jobless claims. Expectations are for them to remain unchanged at 232,000 for last week, but a sharply higher number could stir the pot. Q2 GDP is expected to have risen 2.8% y/y; a significantly lower result, though unlikely, could spook traders and bolster calls for a 50 bps rate cut in September. PCE Price data, wholesale inventories, and home sales reports are likely to be largely ignored. However, despite the flood of data, with the last long weekend of the summer looming, the question remains: will there be enough traders to care?
EURUSD is moving lower, trading within a 1.1072-1.1140 range, and is currently at 1.1094 in early New York trading. Despite improvements in Economic Sentiment, Consumer Confidence, and Services Sentiment in August, the euro came under pressure. ING economists noted that the positive figures were largely driven by a boost from the French Olympics, with the underlying data revealing continued weakness in Eurozone manufacturing and high inventory levels. Additionally, weaker-than-expected German regional inflation data added to the euro’s struggles.
GBPUSD is trading cautiously within a 1.3169-1.3227 range after reaching a peak of 1.3264 on Wednesday. Sterling is being weighed down by fears that the new UK government may increase capital gains taxes, coupled with a pessimistic economic outlook from the government. On the hourly chart, GBPUSD is showing a minor downtrend as long as prices remain below 1.3230.
USDJPY has traded quietly within a 144.22-144.87 range, largely influenced by stable US 10-year Treasury yields and a lack of significant economic data. Typhoon Shanshan has made landfall and could potentially reach Tokyo by the weekend, adding a layer of uncertainty.
AUDUSD rebounded from yesterday’s losses, climbing from 0.6781 to 0.6823, supported by better-than-expected CPI data. Meanwhile, traders shrugged off disappointing Q2 Private Capital Expenditure figures, which showed a decline of -2.2% versus the forecast of 1.0% and the previous 1.9%.
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