Since our last weekly publication, the 3Q GDP tracking estimate went down three tenths
to 2.3% q/q saar while our 2Q GDP tracking estimate remains unchanged at 3.0% q/q
saar since the second official estimate. [Sept 6th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
The details of the trade balance report were somewhat softer than our previous assumptions while the details of the factory orders report were roughly in line with our expectations. On net, we lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.5% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and left our Q3 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at 2.6%. [Sept 4th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on September 4, up from 2.0 percent on September 3. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -0.6 percent to 0.0 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.3 percent to 3.2 percent. [Sept 4th estimate]