We recently compiled a list of the 10 Worst Performing Affordable Stocks Under $40. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Five9, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVN) stands against the other worst performing affordable stocks under $40.
How’s the Market Performing after Fed Rate Cuts are Finally Here
The stock market has been anxiously waiting for the interest rate cut news. Analysts had been debating whether the Federal Reserve would make a 25-point or 50-point cut. The wait was finally over with good news for the market.
On September 18, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to cut the borrowing rates by the higher end of the expectation, which was 50 basis points. The rate cut indicated that inflation is moderating and that the labor market has weakened. This marked the first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The decision was not unanimous as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman wanted a quarter-point cut. Moreover, the chairman Jerome Powell called the cuts to be a “recalibration”. One thing that the committee was confident about is the fact that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% mark.
Right after the decision the Dow Jones index jumped 375 points and then eased a little as the market digested the news. In one of our recent articles about 10 Worst Affordable Stocks To Buy Right Now, we talked about how Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder was confident that the market will perform positively both moving in and out of the announcement. Here’s an excerpt from the article:
“Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder, joined CNBC to talk about how the market is expected to perform moving into the fed rate cuts and after the announcement. Lee believes that one of the factors leading to confusion among investors is the election period. The market is expected to stay in a fluctuating environment for the next eight weeks until the elections are over. However, fed rate cuts are coming at a crucial time to give some positive for the market.
There are two main reasons leading up to the rate cuts, one being the inflation easing and the other being the slower labor market that needs help from the Federal Reserve. Moreover, Lee thinks that regardless of the Fed deciding on a 25-point or 50-point cut, the result is going to be positive for the market. He thinks that investors should be confident for the next 12 months as whenever the Fed cuts rates, the win ratio for the markets has been almost 100%. Moreover, the markets rally post-elections regardless of who takes the seat.”
Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business and Wisdom Tree chief economist, recently appeared on CNBC and expressed that he was pleasantly surprised by the Federal Reserve’s decision to make a 50 basis point cut. While talking about how the market is going to perform after the announcement, Professor Siegel said the market is going to be at an all-time high and there are not going to be any fluctuations as we have seen in the past few days.
The word “recalibration” holds significance here, the market has been 100% towards the target unemployment around 80% to 90% towards the inflation target and the Fed hadn’t moved the interest rate. Professor Siegel pointed out that the gap has been growing between the Fed Funds and the market conditions and they were thinking about a single cut by year-end until June. However, the latest announcement mentioned the Fed will cut rates at each meeting making a total of 6 cuts until June of next year. This will bring the Fed Funds rate down 200 basis points to 3.3%, which is where the professor thinks it should be.
Overall, the market and the economy seem to be heading towards a period of growth. The only foreseeable headwind is if the inflation picks up, however, analysts don’t see any signs of inflation picking up; rather they see all major industries doing well especially now that the rates have been cut.
Our Methodology
To compile the list of the 10 worst performing affordable stocks under $40, we used the Finviz stock screener. We first defined criteria to ensure we only got the worst performing affordable stocks. We selected stocks trading below the market average Forward P/E (i.e. 23.79 as per Wall Street Journal), with earnings expected to grow this year, average analyst median price target upside potential of at least 30%, and a year-to-date decline of at least 30%. Moreover, we also ensured that these stocks were trading below $40 and were widely held by institutional investors.
Once the criteria were defined, we then selected 10 stocks that fit our criteria and ranked them in ascending order of the Year-to-Date decline. Please note that all the indicators used to rank the list were recorded on September 18.
Why do we care about what hedge funds do? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
An IT engineer working on a laptop as planograms for a cloud-based virtual contact center platform appear on the monitor.
Five9, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVN)
Share Price: $28.39
Analyst Upside Potential: 76.12%
Forward P/E Ratio: 12.7
Earnings Growth This Year: 10.70%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 34
Year-to-Date Decline: 62.64%
Five9, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVN) is a cloud-based software company that provides solutions for contact centers. The company enables businesses to manage their customer interactions effectively through a cloud-based software that allows communication through various channels.
The company differentiates itself from its competitors due to its artificial intelligence integration that enables features such as automated responses and intelligent routing of customer inquiries to the right agents based on their expertise. To further bolster the growth of its artificial intelligence, Five9, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVN) has acquired Acqueon, a proactive outbound omnichannel customer engagement company.
While the stock has been down on a year-to-date basis by more than 62% and is one of the worst performing affordable stocks under $40, management is optimistic about its long-term growth especially due to its AI market.
If we look at the most recent quarter (Q2 2024) results the analyst upside potential of 76% seems reasonable. Five9, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVN) just surpassed the $1 billion mark in annual revenue. Its overall subscription revenue growth was also impressive indicating a 17% increase.
The recent quarter also marked significant logo wins for the company It signed deals for Higher education enrollment management with an expected annualized recurring revenue (ARR) of $1.3 million and another with a healthcare provider with $1.1M in anticipated ARR. It was held by 34 institutional investors in the second quarter of 2024, with total stakes worth $389.9 million. Alyeska Investment Group is the top shareholder of the company with a position worth $94.2.
Brown Capital Management Mid Company Fund stated the following regarding Five9, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVN) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“Five9, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVN) is a leader in cloud-based contact-center software, which serves as the routing engine to connect callers to agents. With the growth of e-commerce, consumers are making fewer in-person visits to stores but contacting companies more frequently, driving the need for world-class contact-center software solutions like Five9’s. It has been a tough couple of years for Five9’s stock and this quarter provided no relief. Competitive concerns, questions about AI’s long-term impact on the business and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have all cast clouds over the company’s stock. Five9’s consumer segment, one of its largest divisions, has really struggled of late as clients hire fewer call-center agents, pressuring Five9’s seat-based revenue model. Total revenue growth decelerated to 13% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, down from 28% and 17% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Moreover, management guided to 16% for the full year 2024, which some consider optimistic given the weak start to the year. These worsening sales trends further weighed on shares during the quarter.
Looking through the current industry doldrums, we see a bright future for Five9. The company inked its largest deal ever during the quarter, which will generate more than $50 million in annual revenue once fully rolled out. We believe this is an important signal of Five9’s long-term potential. The company is attacking a $60 billion market opportunity, is winning new business at industry-leading rates and is gaining share from legacy incumbents stuck with antiquated technology. We continue to assess the potential threat of AI, but so far it has provided an uplift to company results. The company’s AI product is very popular with large enterprises as it assists agents with customer interactions and can sometimes be used to fully automate interactions. Far from shrinking the number of industry seats, as some fear, management said revenue per seat doubles when customers adopt their AI applications. We expect sales growth to pick up markedly in the coming years, which should result in much stronger stock performance.”
Overall FIVN ranks 1st on our list of the worst performing affordable stocks under $40. While we acknowledge the potential of FIVN as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a promising AI stock that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.