We recently compiled a list of the A Game Changer: Jim Cramer’s Latest Top 10 Stock Picks. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) stands against Jim Cramer’s other stock picks.
Jim Cramer: Billions to Flood the Market as Double Rate Cut Sparks Stock Surge!
In a recent episode of Mad Money, Jim Cramer explains that a double rate cut, or a 50 basis point reduction, is likely to attract tens of billions of dollars into the stock market from investors who have been sitting on the sidelines. Many people have been holding onto cash in money funds, eager to invest, especially as rates start to decline. While some are tied up in CDs or treasuries, those inaccessible money funds see the opportunity to move their cash into high-yield dividend stocks.
Cramer warns that they need to act quickly, as these stocks will soon rise in price and lose their high-yield appeal. He also criticizes commentators on television who downplay the Fed’s impact by focusing on the national debt. He argues that these voices are not interested in helping everyday investors; instead, they cater to the wealthy. Cramer reminds listeners that their audience is diverse, and it’s essential to focus on making informed investment decisions.
“When you get a double rate cut, meaning a 50 basis point monster, well, that’s going to bring tens of billions of dollars into the stock market from the sidelines. The sidelines have been so lucrative for so long that people in money funds have been coveting their dollars. Sure, there are plenty of folks sitting in two- to three-year CDs or treasuries who can’t easily cash out, but if you’re in an easily accessible money fund, you can see rates are going lower now, right? That’s all the more incentive to put your cash into, say, dividend stocks with high yields. You’ve got to do it fast because pretty soon, the high yielders will rally to the point where they’re just mid-yielders.
No matter how smart they sound, the people who come on television to argue that the Fed’s actions don’t matter because the national debt is too big are being unhelpful. These people are not concerned with helping you make money; you’re not important to them. They’re speaking to the billionaire class. Yes, they crowded you out a long time ago. Remember, we do have all sorts of audiences.”
Additionally, Jim Cramer points out that many Wall Street analysts like to go against popular opinion, which leads them to downplay the importance of a half-point rate cut. He believes this perspective ignores common sense. Cramer acknowledges that while aging has its downsides, like not being able to move around as easily at events, he feels he has gained wisdom. He understands the situation better than those who argue that the rate cut indicates panic, simply by being present and observing the market.
“Everybody on Wall Street loves to be a contrarian, which is why so many commentators keep trying to minimize the impact of a half-point rate cut. Not me! No matter what, common sense dictates that there are always people who think they know better than common sense, and they don’t. There are so few advantages to age, I have to tell you.”
Can the 50 Basis Point Cut Spark Stock Gains and Revive Housing?
Jim Cramer points out that during rate cuts, there are many promising winners to consider, while the losers are easy to spot and should be avoided. He emphasizes that when the Wall Street Journal reported the chance of a 50 basis point cut, it opened up more opportunities for stocks to benefit. A smaller 25 basis point cut could have aided homebuilders if they had built more homes, but they’ve been reluctant due to high rates. However, a 50 basis point cut will lower mortgage rates, making homes more affordable and likely giving a boost to the housing market.
“The winners in an easing cycle are varied and exciting, while the losers are obvious and must be avoided. From the moment the Journal reported that there could be a 50 basis point cut, the swatch of what can go higher expanded dogmatically. A 25-point cut would have been truly beneficial for homebuilders if they would just start building a lot more homes, that’s something they’ve been reluctant to do because rates are still too high. But a 50 basis point cut means lower mortgages for certain and, therefore, more affordable homes.”
Our Methodology:
In this article, we delve into the latest episode of Jim Cramer’s Morning Thoughts, where he analyzed various stocks. We rank these companies based on their popularity among hedge funds, starting with the least owned and moving up to the most favored.
At Insider Monkey we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A team of architects meeting around a blueprint to discuss the design of a high-end apartment rental.
Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 46
Jim Cramer shared that Bank of America has raised its price targets for homebuilders, including Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL), while also maintaining a buy rating on the company.
Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) is poised for growth, bolstered by strong performance in Q2 2024, during which it reported approximately $2 billion in revenue, driven by high demand for luxury homes. Improved gross margins reflect effective cost management and pricing strategies.
The luxury housing market remains robust, and as a leading builder in this sector, Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) is capitalizing on increasing consumer interest in premium homes, which is fueled by lifestyle changes and low inventory. Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) geographic diversification across various U.S. markets helps mitigate risks and allows the company to leverage regional trends. Additionally, a substantial backlog of homes under contract indicates promising future revenue potential and reflects consumer confidence.
Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) is also dedicated to sustainability, emphasizing energy-efficient building practices that attract environmentally conscious buyers, giving it a competitive advantage. Recent developments include expanding its product lines to offer more customizable home options and exploring new communities aimed at active adult living, targeting the growing number of older buyers looking for luxury homes.
Baron Real Estate Fund stated the following regarding Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“We trimmed our position in Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL), America’s leading luxury homebuilder, during the second quarter following exceptionally strong share price appreciation over the last year and the Fund’s resulting large position size. Toll Brothers remains the largest position in the Fund, and we continue to be enthusiastic about the company’s long-term prospects.
Our meetings with CEO Doug Yearley and other key members of the company’s management confirm our view that the long-term prospects remain compelling. We believe Toll Brothers has the ability to grow its community count of homes by approximately 10% per year as the company continues to gain market share against its mostly smaller private competitors who lack scale advantages, brand awareness, and access to attractively priced financing. Further, Toll Brothers has a long runway for multi-decade growth as it targets the fastest growing income demographic in the U.S. – 16 million households with annual incomes of at least $200,000. According to the U.S. Census Bureau (September 2023), households with over $200,000 in annual income have grown approximately 10 times faster than all U.S. households in the last 10 years. Currently, Toll Brothers has captured only 0.06% of this important demographic group. For additional reasons we remain optimistic on our investment in Toll Brothers, please see the “Top contributors” section of our first quarter 2024 shareholder letter.”
Overall TOL ranks 7th on our list of Jim Cramer’s latest top 10 stock picks. While we acknowledge the potential of TOL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TOL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.