Year-to-date total carloads in 2024 through September were down 3.3% (285,871 carloads) from last
year and down 3.0% from the first nine months of 2022. So far in 2024, total carloads fell on a year
over-year basis every month except August. …
Year-to-date U.S. intermodal in 2024 through September was 10.2 million units, up
9.5% (882,064 units) over last year and the fourth highest January-September total ever.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average for carloads for the last 3 years. Total carloads were down 0.5% in September YoY.
Carloads excluding coal were more promising: they were up
2.9% in Q3 2024 over Q3 2023, suggesting continued appetite for
rail transportation. Excluding coal, total carloads were 1.4% (86,782
carloads) higher in the first nine months of 2024 than in the same
period in 2023.
And on Intermodal:
U.S. intermodal originations in September 2024
were up 10.7% (108,257 containers and trailers)
over September 2023, marking more than a year
of consecutive year-over-year gains. In Q3 2024,
intermodal was up 11.0% over Q3 2023, the
biggest year-over-year percentage gain for a
quarter since Q2 2021. Total intermodal
originations averaged 274,500 in Q3 2024. Only
2018 had a better third quarter for total
intermodal.
Note: rail traffic was weak even before the pandemic. As AAR noted: “Trade tensions and declining mfrg. output lead to lower rail volumes” in 2019.