• Bank of Canada cuts rates 50 bps and indicates more cuts to come.
• Eurozone and UK ignoring PMI reports.
• US dollar is trading defensively, albeit only modestly.
USDCAD: open 1.3819, overnight range 1.3813-1.3843, close 1.3838, WTI $72.25, Gold, $2736.61
The Canadian dollar is trading right back to where it was before the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps. The move was not a surprise, as about 70% of traders and analysts were expecting it, which is why, when USDCAD popped to 1.3865 from 1.3830, the move was quickly reversed.
The BoC has now cut rates by 125 bps and hinted that more cuts are in the pipeline. Policymakers argued that inflation risks are balanced, which gives them room to reduce borrowing costs without worrying about deflation. And they will. Economists are forecasting another 50 bp rate cut in December, followed by at least three 25 bps cuts in 2025 to bring rates to 2.5%. This is also a sign that the BoC believes the domestic economy is too weak.
The focus now shifts back to the US. The Presidential election and the outlook for Fed rates will drive FX direction until at least November 5.
EURUSD traded in a tight 1.0770-1.0808 range, partly because of mixed PMI data from the Eurozone. Flash Composite PMI came in at 49.7, slightly up from September’s 49.6, while the Services PMI dropped to 51.2 from 51.4.. Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno, argued for a 50-basis-point rate cut at the next meeting in response to ongoing economic challenges.
GBPUSD is rallying, rising from 1.2909 in Asia to 1.2976 in New York, although it still has ground to cover to recover from the previous day’s losses. The rise is notable given the weak UK Manufacturing and Services PMI data which S&P Global blamed on pessimism surrounding government policy and uncertainty about the upcoming Budget.
USDJPY has fallen to the lower end of its 151.79-152.83 range, despite comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who reiterated that the bank will continue its accommodative monetary policy. The primary driver of the drop in USDJPY has been the decline in US Treasury yields.
AUDUSD gradually rose from 0.6629 to 0.6662, supported by the overall weaker US dollar. PMI data from the Manufacturing, Services, and Composite sectors were largely in line with expectations and had little impact on the currency’s movement.
US weekly jobless claims and S&P Global PMI data is are due.