We recently compiled a list of the 10 Cheap REITs with Huge Upside. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NASDAQ:REFI) stands against the other Cheap REITs with Huge Upside.
How is the US Real Estate Market Unfolding?
In the week ending October 24, the average rate on a standard, 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.54%, hitting its highest level since early August. Previously, the mortgage rates dropped to their lowest since early February 2023 after the Fed made its first big rate cut. However, home buying activity hasn’t accelerated as such. Sales of previously owned homes accounting for the majority of the market declined 1% in September from the preceding month. On the contrary, new home sales rose 4.1% in September.
While the slow demand could be attributed to lower rates coming too late for many homebuyers as they tend to buy and sell homes in the spring season, some are hoping for the rates to fall even lower as they look forward to the Fed’s upcoming rate cuts. At the same time, a chronic shortage of inventory is harming the market, with home prices rising in September for the 15th consecutive month.
On October 25, Robert Reffkin, Compass CEO, appeared on CNBC to discuss the housing market. He mentioned that the mortgage rates although on the rise, are a lot better than what they were one year ago at 8.2%. Since consumers react more to the change in the mortgage rate than the absolute rate itself, pending home sales are up 10% year-over-year.
In another interview with CNBC, Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates managing director, emphasized that the rise in the mortgage rates is the equivalent of a 6% increase in home payment prices. While the resale home market remains constrained due to a lack of inventory, the new home market is showing solid activity. In the prevailing conditions, builders have a competitive advantage over the resale market as they are buying mortgage rates down. However, rate buydowns and other incentives are pressuring gross margins while the opportunity to raise prices or lower incentives to drive the margin back up remains low amidst severe affordability issues.
Is the Commercial Real Estate Sector Recovering?
Lower interest rates are expected to benefit rate-sensitive sectors such as commercial real estate by bringing positive momentum. According to Wells Fargo analysts, the Fed’s shift in policy is the most notable green shoot for the commercial real estate market. Additionally, Alan Todd, head of commercial mortgage-backed security strategy at Bank of America, deems the primary impact of interest rate cuts psychological. Hence, a sense of stability would enable borrowers to get off the sideline and start to transact as the Fed continues its rate cutting.
On September 23, Willy Walker, Walker & Dunlop chairman and CEO, joined CNBC’s ‘Squawk on the Street’. He mentioned how the refinancing and sales volumes are picking up as the sentiment around commercial real estate improves. Furthermore, the second quarter of 2024 witnessed the overall transaction volumes recording their first quarterly increase since 2022. Over $40 billion in transactions took place in the quarter which marked a 13.9% quarter-over-quarter increase.
The multifamily sector is demonstrating strength as well with net absorption totaling 126,600 units in Q2, the sixth-highest Q2 total in more than 20 years. Additionally, the overall multifamily vacancy rate remained unchanged at 5.5% in the quarter after two years of quarterly increases. With demand outpacing new deliveries, the vacancy rate should start to fall toward its long-run average of 5% in subsequent quarters as reported by CBRE.
While the aforementioned dynamics seem to lay the foundation for commercial real estate recovery, the office sector still remains stressed and plagued with challenges. Although the sector has shown some improvement in Q2 with the office net absorption turning positive for the first time since 2022, problems such as rising vacancies and supply outpacing demand continue to persist. Hence, the office sector despite showing some progress, still has a long way to go.
Our Methodology
In order to compile a list of the 10 cheap REITs with huge upside, we first used Yahoo stock screener to find a list of REITs with a forward P/E under 15. We then selected the 10 stocks that had the highest upside potential. The 10 cheap REITs with huge upside are arranged in ascending order of their average upside potential, as of October 24.
At Insider Monkey we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NASDAQ:REFI)
Average Upside Potential: 16.96%
Forward P/E: 7.47
Number of Hedge Funds: 7
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NASDAQ:REFI) is a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust that originates senior secured loans primarily to state-licensed cannabis operators in limited-license states in the United States.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NASDAQ:REFI) has a growing loan portfolio diversified across geographies, operators, and asset types with strong real estate collateral coverage and additional collateral. The firm is chosen by operators on the basis of its strong brand reputation, strong ties to financial sponsors active in the cannabis space, deep industry knowledge, and execution on a timely basis.
The market opportunity for the firm remains promising considering that sales of the US cannabis industry are to rival beer, wine, and spirits by 2030. The trends of state legalization of cannabis for medical and adult use, and increased consumer adoption will continue to drive the demand for financing in the cannabis market. Furthermore, the firm faces limited competition in a highly fragmented market due to the federal prohibition on cannabis use and commercialization restricting commercial and financial activities.
In the second quarter, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NASDAQ:REFI) recorded a net interest income of approximately $13.2 million which was consistent with the first quarter of 2024. Net income and distributable earnings declined sequentially. During the quarter, the REIT had total gross originations of $20.9 million out of which $11.2 million and $9.7 million was funded to new borrowers and existing borrowers respectively. Furthermore, the firm increased the size of the revolving credit facility to $105 million in total and raised over $6 million of capital through the ATM program.
In short, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NASDAQ:REFI) serves as the lender of choice to cannabis industry operators through a proprietary sourcing network, a growing portfolio with attractive risk-adjusted returns, a strong record of identifying market inefficiencies, and favorable industry conditions.
Overall, REFI ranks 7th on our list of the other Cheap REITs with Huge Upside. While we acknowledge the potential of REFI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than REFI, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.