By early 2019, I was becoming more concerned: “So far Mr. Trump has had a limited negative impact on the economy. … Fortunately the cupboard was full when Trump took office, and luckily there hasn’t been a significant crisis“. Unfortunately, the COVID crisis struck in early 2020 and Trump performed poorly.
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.
Since Trump’s policies will not be evidence based (he rejects data that doesn’t fit his views), I expect generally bad results. However – as in his previous term – bad policies might mean higher deficits with little return – not an economic downturn. Until we see the actual policy proposals, it is hard to predict the impact. I will write more as policies are enacted. However, I’m not sanguine.