The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (%OPEC) has lowered its forecast for global %Oil demand this year and next due largely to a continued economic slump in China.
It is the fourth consecutive month that OPEC has ratcheted down its outlook for oil demand.
According to its latest forecast, OPEC expects global oil consumption will increase by 1.8 million barrels a day, or about 2%, in 2024. That’s 107,000 barrels a day less than previously forecast.
OPEC predicts that world oil consumption will average 104 million barrels a day this year. Daily demand will then increase by 1.5 million barrels in 2025, or 103,000 barrels less than the organization previously estimated.
OPEC has reduced its target for this year’s demand growth by almost a fifth since July as crude prices continue to slump amid weakening demand in China, India, and parts of Africa.
Despite the lowered outlook, OPEC remains more bullish on global oil demand than other forecasters. The latest forecast from OPEC is roughly double the rate anticipated by the International Energy Agency (IEA), for example.
Still, OPEC has twice delayed the restart of production halted since 2022. A series of modest monthly increases is due to start in early 2025, although that plan will be reviewed at a meeting scheduled for Dec. 1 of this year.
The downwardly revised forecast comes as Brent crude oil, the international standard, has declined 18% since early July and is trading near $72 U.S. a barrel.
Energy traders are now mostly focused on an economic slowdown in China, where energy demand has contracted for several months in a row as Beijing grapples with a decline in consumer spending and a debt crisis in the property sector.
The return in January of president-elect Donald Trump could also disrupt energy markets and forecasts. Trump has threatened to impose severe trade tariffs on China and other countries.
During his previous administration, Trump choked off oil exports from OPEC member Iran in a dispute over Tehran’s nuclear program.