– FOMC officials will be chattering up a storm today.
– Market focus is who Trump picks for key administration posts.
– US dollar rallies across the board.
USDCAD: open 1.3962, range (since Friday) 1.3898-1.3967 close 1.3915, WTI $68.50, Gold, $2597.44
The Canadian dollar is under duress and getting set to test levels last seen in 2020. The selling pressure stems from broad-based safe-haven demand for US dollars thanks to Donald Trump’s election victory.
Trump’s decisive victory and the Republic sweep that will likely give them control of the House and Senate suggests Mr Trump’s America first polices will derail global economic growth. Canada will suffer like every other country.
Crypto currency traders love Trump’s victory. They have boosted the price of bitcoin (BTCUSD) by 30% since election night and many “experts” say $100,000 is almost a given.
There are plenty of Fed officials offering opinions today. They include Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem. New York Fed President John Williams, and Dallas Fed President Lori Logan. However, no one expects them to comment on how the Fed will react to Trump’s proposed tariffs.
EURUSD remains under downward pressure, trading between 1.0611 and 1.0663 overnight. The growing gap between the economic outlooks in the Eurozone and the US, along with widening interest rate differentials, is placing a drag on the euro. Meanwhile, Germany’s HICP rose by 0.4% in October, aligning with forecasts.
GBPUSD fluctuated between 1.2792 and 1.2874, showing a slight rebound in early New York trading as prices nudged up to 1.2824. UK unemployment climbed to 4.3% from 4.0% in the three months ending in September, while wage growth slowed from 4.9% to 4.8%. This data does little to prevent the Bank of England from continuing its gradual rate-cutting approach.
USDJPY erased Friday’s losses, advancing from 152.44 to 154.16 overnight and settling at 154.01 in New York trading. The pair is buoyed by steady US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield holding at 4.36% as markets temper expectations for Fed rate cuts. The Bank of Japan appears in no rush to raise its policy rate, which also weighs on the yen.
AUDUSD is hovering near the lower end of its 0.6534-0.6582 range as global trade tensions cast a cautious tone in early New York trading. Westpac Consumer Sentiment climbed 5.3% to 94.6 in November from October’s 89.8. In addition, NAB’s Business Confidence rose from -2 to 5 in October, while Business Conditions remained stable at 7.