Next week, we will initiate our 4Q GDP tracker after the October retail sales print today and October industrial production, housing starts, existing home sales and September business inventories will impact our 3Q and 4Q tracking estimate. [Current forecast 2.0%, Nov 15th]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s retail sales and industrial production reports, we lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.5% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and left our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged on a rounded basis at +2.0%. [Nov 15th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on November 15, unchanged from November 7 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth. [Nov 15th estimate]