An options market indicator of %Bitcoin (CRYPTO: $BTC) volatility has hit a three-month high as Americans head to the polls to vote in a tightly contested U.S. presidential election.
Crypto options exchange Deribit’s Bitcoin implied volatility index (DVOL), a closely watched gauge of expected price swings over a 30-day period, has risen to an annualized 63.24%, the highest level since July of this year when markets were in decline.
Bitcoin’s seven-day implied volatility, which captures the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Nov. 7 interest rate decision and expected election results by Nov. 8, has jumped to 74.4%.
That’s much higher than the seven-day historical volatility average of 41.4%.
Analysts say that a “significant risk premium” has been built-in around the U.S. election and that the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can be expected to be volatile in coming days.
On Nov. 3, the probability of pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the swing state of Pennsylvania fell to 53% from 61% on decentralized predictions platform Polymarket.
The latest New York Times poll of likely voters released on Nov. 3 showed Trump and current vice-president Kamala Harris tied at 48% support among decided voters.
The presidential election is taking place on Nov. 5 but most pundits don’t expect the outcome to be known until Nov. 8 or later. Some pundits say it could take weeks or months before a winner is declared.
Bitcoin nearly hit an all-time high in the past week but has since pulled back to trade around $68,000 U.S.
Options-based metrics have also risen in foreign exchange and U.S. Treasury markets, showing increased volatility there as well.
The price of Bitcoin has risen 55% so far in 2024 to trade at $68,500 U.S.