– UK inflation ticks higher and sinks GBPUSD
– Treasury yields rise
– US dollar rises across the board, overnight.
USDCAD: open 1.3990, overnight range,1.3951-1.4000, close 1.3957, WTI $69.5, Gold, $2625.03
The Canadian dollar rallied on the heels of a higher than expected inflation report yesterday but it has since reversed the move.
Canadian CPI rose 0.4% in October which lifted the annual rate to 2.0% from 1.6% in September. It wasn’t an unexpected move. In fact Governor Tiff Macklem previously warned that the path to lower inflation would be bumpy. Yesterday’s result is an example of a bump.
The initial FX reaction drove USDCAD down from 1.3995 to 1.3957 as traders revised their expectations for a 50 bp rate cut at the December 11, BoC monetary policy meeting. However, the move didn’t last which was partly due to the traders unwinding the most recent safe-haven trades that were entered following Russian President Putin’s nuclear weapon threat. USDCAD also rallied because, although inflation rose, it remained well within the BoC’s targeted 1-3% range.
The focus shifts to a herd of Fed officials including Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, and Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman, offering their monetary policy insight. The US economic calendar is empty.
EURUSD fell from 1.0610 to 1.0542 due to a combination of interest rate differentials between the ECB and the US, as well as dovish comments from ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta, who called for further rate cuts. The escalating risk of the Russia-Ukraine conflict also exerted downward pressure on the pair.
GBPUSD retreated from 1.2715 in Asia to 1.2651 in New York after a higher-than-expected UK inflation data. Headline CPI increased by 2.3% y/y, surpassing the forecast of 2.2% and September’s 1.7%. Core CPI ticked up to 3.3% from 3.2% y/y, while the Retail Price Index met expectations with a 0.5% m/m gain, significantly better than the previous month’s -0.3%. Some economists noted that despite the headline figures, underlying data showed a decline in core services inflation.
USDJPY rose from 154.53 to 155.87 as traders unwound safe-haven positions following Putin’s nuclear threats, which markets interpreted as posturing. The move was supported by rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield climbing from 4.388% to 4.428%.
AUDUSD drifted lower within a 0.6501 to 0.6541 range, weighed down by renewed concerns over China’s economic growth, which overshadowed the RBA’s steady rate stance and relatively hawkish tone in its latest minutes.