Dan Niles on Tesla (TSLA): It’s ‘Hard’ To Make Good Risk-Reward Case With PE of Over 100 - InvestingChannel

Dan Niles on Tesla (TSLA): It’s ‘Hard’ To Make Good Risk-Reward Case With PE of Over 100

We recently published a list of 9 Buzzing AI Stocks to Watch on Latest News. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)  stands against other buzzing AI stocks to watch on latest news.

Doug Clinton, Intelligent Alpha founder, talked recently about the issue of scaling in AI on CNBC and said that in the past the improvement of AI models was surging based on the data inputs. However, Clinton referred to the recent reports of AI models hitting a plateau in performance. He believes this issue will be important for AI investors in the coming months and years.

“Just to give the quick 101: Over the last few years, what we’ve seen in AI model development is that the more data you put into these models and the more compute you use to train them, the better the models get—very predictable. However, recent reports from OpenAI and Google show that the latest models they’ve trained haven’t been as good as expected based on scaling laws. This has sparked debate in Silicon Valley. Even Sam Altman tweeted about it last week, saying, “There is no wall,” so maybe it’s not an issue—we’ll see. But I think Jensen really needs to address that question because the 18 to 24-month picture hinges on whether these companies will need to invest in something beyond just compute.”

However, the analyst is bullish on the broader AI market in the long term and believes companies are just getting started in this bull market.

“I think if you take a longer-term view—2 to 4 years—we’re still very confident we’ll be in an AI bull market. That doesn’t mean there won’t be pullbacks here and there, but I think we have a long way to go. Companies are really just starting to adopt AI, and we’ll begin to see those revenues over the next year and beyond.”

READ ALSO Jim Cramer’s Latest Lightning Round: 11 Stocks to Watch and Jim Cramer on AMD and Other Stocks

For this article we picked 10 AI stocks trending on latest news and analyst ratings. With each stock we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).

Dan Niles on Tesla (TSLA): It’s ‘Hard’ To Make Good Risk-Reward Case With PE of Over 100 Copyright: wolandmaster / 123RF Stock Photo

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 85

Dan Niles, Niles Investment Management founder and portfolio manager,  said while talking during a CNBC program that Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are appealing to its buyers because of future growth catalysts more than the EV business. The analyst also pointed to Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s high valuation.

“It’s very hard with over 100 PE for me to make a good risk-reward case in the name because people aren’t really focused on that so much. They’re looking at the optionality of what’s in the future, and that’s energy and storage, which is less than 10% of revenues but growing over 50% a year. You’ve got robo-taxis, you’ve got full self-driving over the next couple of years, and that’s what people are really owning the stock for, Joe. It’s not as much on the EV side; obviously, that’s the base business that gives them the money to fund all the rest of this. But yeah, I have the same concerns you do.”

The Tesla Robotaxi event disappointed investors. Notably absent was the discussion of a “more affordable” model that Musk had previously mentioned to boost confidence in Tesla’s vehicle sales growth outlook.

There is a lot of hype around Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) robo taxis but many believe they will not be enough to fix the company’s long-term challenges.

What are these challenges?

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) product lineup is showing signs of stagnation, with over 95% of sales still coming from the Model 3 and Model Y. Meanwhile, competitors are rolling out more advanced models. Even Rivian’s CEO suggested Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) could be nearing market saturation for these models. According to Reuters, Tesla’s market share in Europe is slipping as legacy automakers like BMW post stronger sales. Chinese competitor BYD is also gaining ground in Europe, despite talk of tariffs.

Polen Focus Growth Strategy stated the following regarding Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:

“The largest relative detractors during the quarter were Apple, Airbnb, and Tesla (not owned). We’ve spoken at length about our rationale for not owning Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA). In short, the market seems to be pricing in a lot of positive optionality for this company in the near-to-intermediate term (and particularly a fully autonomous fleet of electric vehicles in the medium term). What exists today is an automobile manufacturer limited to the higher-income segment that is increasingly challenged to sell vehicles when interest rates are not zero. We continue to question the company’s long-term growth profile and governance.”

Overall, TSLA ranks 7th on our list of buzzing AI stocks to watch on latest news. While we acknowledge the potential of TSLA, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TSLA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

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