We recently published a list of 10 Stocks That Are Close To Becoming Dividend Aristocrats. In this article, we are going to take a look at where United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) stands against the other stocks that are close to becoming dividend aristocrats.
Income investors are drawn to Dividend Aristocrats because these stocks have consistently increased their dividends for decades. However, it’s possible to achieve even better returns by investing in stocks that are on the path to becoming Aristocrats—those that are increasing payouts but haven’t yet reached the 25-year mark required to qualify. This is where the real potential for wealth lies. The downside of some Aristocrats is that their most rewarding growth years may be behind them. Once a company reaches a certain level of dividend stability, its payout ratios can become inflated, and dividend hikes may slow, often limited to modest profit growth.
That said, dividend aristocrats are special. Among the approximately 6,000 stocks listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ, only around 67 companies have earned the distinction of being Dividend Aristocrats. These stocks have consistently outperformed other asset classes over time. Since the inception of the Dividend Aristocrats Index in 2005 through September 2023, it has delivered a total return of 10.35%, outperforming the broader market, which returned 9.54% during the same period.
READ ALSO: Dividend Aristocrats: Top 7 Companies by Yield for November 2024
In recent years, dividend investing has become an increasingly popular strategy, largely due to periods of heightened market volatility. The annual dividend payouts from the broader market have been on the rise, growing from $420 billion in 2017 to $522 billion in 2021. By 2023, these payments reached a record high of $588.2 billion. This trend demonstrates that investing in dividend stocks offers the potential for long-term growth and income generation. In addition, dividends have played a key role in overall market returns. From 2013 to 2022, dividends contributed around 17% of the total return of the broader market, according to a Morgan Stanley report.
While growth tech stocks have been in the spotlight this year, dividend stocks still have the potential to outperform as companies keep raising their payouts. Analysts remain optimistic about the continued growth of dividend stocks. Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, made the following comment in this regard:
“Given the FOMC’s interest rate reduction start and record earnings for Q2, and projected record earnings for both Q3 and Q4, companies may be more at ease to commit funds to larger dividend increases. The notable conclusion is that many companies have the ability and cash-flow to increase their dividend payments, but remain concerned over the economy, government spending and taxing policy.”
Analysts support dividend stocks due to their long-term growth potential. When discussing dividend stocks from this aspect, reinvesting dividends is a key strategy for compounding returns over time. From 1978 to 2020, dividends and their reinvestment contributed to 69% of the market’s total returns. This means that a $10,000 investment, with dividends reinvested consistently, would have grown to more than $1.2 million during this period. Given investors’ preference for dividend stocks, many companies have implemented dividend policies and are consistently increasing their payouts with the goal of achieving 25 years of dividend growth.
A warehouse filled with boxes of parcels, symbolizing the companies reliable logistics services.
Our Methodology
For this list, we selected companies from the S&P 500 that have raised their dividends for 18 years or more and are on the steady path to becoming dividend aristocrats. These companies would be achieving their dividend aristocrat status in seven years or less. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of their consecutive years of dividend growth. We also measured hedge fund sentiment around each stock according to Insider Monkey’s database of 900 as of Q3 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS)
Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth: 22 Years
United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) is an American multinational shipping and supply chain management company offering its consumers various related services. The company has encountered difficulties adjusting to a shifting business landscape, marked by declining shipping demand and rising inflationary pressures. The CEO pointed to a slowdown in manufacturing and industrial production. However, the company plans to focus on expanding more profitable deliveries in targeted sectors like healthcare and small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). Despite this focus, challenging market conditions have led customers to opt for more affordable delivery options, resulting in UPS experiencing significant growth in lower-margin deliveries. The stock has fallen by over 14% since the start of 2024.
These challenges, however, did not stop United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) from delivering strong earnings in the most recent quarter. The company reported revenue of $22.2 billion in Q3 2024, up 5.6% from the same period last year. The revenue also surpassed analysts’ estimates by $115.3 million. Its operating profit was $974 million, which saw a high increase from $665 million in the prior-year period. Artisan Partners highlighted the company’s strengths in its Q3 2024 investor letter. Here is what the firm has to say:
“We made no new purchases in Q3. Instead, our purchase activity was focused on adding to a few of our existing names that remain cheap, such as Dollar General and United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS). When we initiated our position in UPS in late 2023, shares were under pressure due to concerns about its new labor contract diverting volumes and driving up costs, as well as the continued normalization of volumes following COVID-related gains. We welcomed the market’s short-term focus as it provided us an opportunity to purchase UPS at an undemanding valuation of less than 11X our view of normalized earnings. UPS is a good transport operation that easily earns its cost of capital, generates significant free cash, has a wide economic moat, has a strong financial profile and pays an attractive dividend—now yielding 4.8%. More recently, the stock has been weak because profits came in weaker than expected. UPS’ customers traded down to the lower yielding ground segment, which negatively impacted overall pricing and margins. These shifts are common and occur in both directions, but what is important, in our view, is the long-term trend of volume growth remains intact. Nevertheless, investors have lost patience with UPS after a string of earnings disappointments.”
United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS)’s cash position makes it a reliable dividend company. Its trailing twelve-month operating cash flow is $9.22 billion and its free cash flow for the period amounts to $4.1 billion. The company has been growing its dividends for the past 22 consecutive years. It currently offers a quarterly dividend of $1.63 per share and has a dividend yield of 4.87%, as of December 2.
According to Insider Monkey’s database of Q3 2024, 43 hedge funds owned stakes in United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS), compared with 44 in the previous quarter. These stakes have a consolidated value of over $1.6 billion. Among these hedge funds, Two Sigma Advisors was the company’s leading stakeholder in Q3.
Overall, UPS ranks 5th on our list of the stocks that are close to becoming dividend aristocrats. While we acknowledge the potential for UPS to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than UPS but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.