– French and South Korean politics boost risk aversion sentiment.
– Fed Chair Powell speaking in NY today.
– US dollar gets a safe-haven boost.
USDCAD: open 1.4066, overnight range,1.4052-1.4083, close 1.4073, WTI $70.21, Gold, $2644.49
The Canadian dollar is gradually sinking due to a mix of geopolitical issues, soft domestic data and the risk of a new round of tariffs from the US. Donald Trump has not even been sworn in yet.
The self-described “Tariff Man” does not appear to think much about the US Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade he signed in November 2018. He has threatened Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs due to weak borders and drug smuggling. As long as the tariff issue continues to percolate, Canadian dollar gains are limited.
The US dollar is underpinned by risk aversion sentiment arising from the bungled martial law declaration in South Korea and the likelihood of political chaos in France. French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is expected to lose a non-confidence vote on Friday and under French law, no elections can be held until July 2025.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is likely to lose his job on Friday as well. He declared martial law yesterday but rescinded the order six hours later after parliamentarians voted to rescind the order. The drama is not finished, and traders are looking for safe-haven assets.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 1:40 p.m. in New York today, and markets are eagerly awaiting signals that might align with recent comments from other Federal Reserve officials.
EURUSD chopped around in a 1.0482-1.0530 range, caught between mixed economic data and political drama in France. Marine Le Pen’s National Party is expected to support a no-confidence vote that could oust Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Meanwhile, weak PMI figures further pressured EURUSD.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.2630 to 1.2702 band, showing little reaction to slightly better-than-expected PMI data. Services PMI came in at 50.8 versus an expected 50, and Composite PMI reached 50.5, beating the forecast of 49.5. Gains were capped by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who suggested that interest rate cuts over the coming year would be implemented gradually.
USDJPY rose from 149.53 to 150.90, ahead of Powell’s upcoming remarks although gains were capped by ongoing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike on December 18.
AUDUSD dropped from 0.6489 to 0.6409 following weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data. The annual growth rate was just 0.8%, falling short of the 1.1% forecast and the previous quarter’s 1% increase.
There is no Canadian data today.