We recently compiled a list of the 9 Best Trucking Stocks To Buy. In this article, we are going to take a look at where FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) stands against the other best trucking stocks.
Trucking stocks are businesses that offer both local and long-distance freight and cargo transportation and transfer services.
According to Global Market Insights, the growing urbanization and infrastructure development are expected to fuel the global freight trucking industry, which was valued at $2.5 trillion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% between 2024 and 2032. The market is divided into local and long-haul groups based on distance. The local segment’s market share was approximately 55% in 2023, and by 2032, it is anticipated to surpass $1.5 trillion. The freight trucking market is divided into many segments based on trucks, including refrigerated trucks, flatbed trucks, truck trailers, and lorry tanks. In 2023, the truck trailer segment’s market share was approximately 36%. In terms of revenue share, the North American freight trucking market had a 35% position in 2023.
Connectivity is anticipated to be crucial in changing these market segments as the industry develops further. Rupert Stuetzle, general manager of EMEA manufacturing and mobility, stated,
“When we look at full logistics-as-a-service solutions, connected services could support higher-level services beyond road transport.”
According to a research report by McKinsey & Company, improvements in fleet management, driver assistance, and the adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) could open up a profit pool of over $3 billion by 2035 because of connected, data-enabled services in commercial vehicles. For instance, fleet management systems already assist big retailers in reducing their diesel usage by up to 8%, and linked ZEVs allow for charge planning and route optimization. By 2030, it is projected that 20–25% of new vehicle sales in the US and 40% in Europe will be ZEVs. Additionally, generative AI is simplifying aftermarket services and vehicle design, with OEM-neutral solutions and new data marketplaces opening up new revenue streams. Initiatives like Eclipse SDV and COVESA are building open data standards, which will improve fleet connection and operational efficiency.
The truck sales industry is anticipated to stay stable in 2024 as a result of these standards. According to the S&P Mobility report, truck sales are likely to stay unchanged in 2024, but due to better economic conditions and the incentive to purchase before 2027 diesel-truck pollution regulations take effect, momentum is anticipated to rise toward a record-setting 2026. Through the midterm, the industry’s adoption of electric cars will be shaped by federal Greenhouse Gas Phase 3 emission regulations and California’s Advanced Clean Trucks law. As per S&P Mobility, the industry’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) ambitions and aspirations are at a crossroads in the next 36 months.
However, recently, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) claimed that the trucking business is suffering greatly as a result of traffic congestion on US highways. According to ATRI’s Cost of Congestion research, operating expenses soared despite fewer hours of congestion, costing the U.S. trucking industry $108.8 billion in 2022—a 15% increase from 2021. This translates to $7,588 per registered truck and more than 430,000 truck drivers sitting idle for a year. Texas, California, and Florida led state costs with $9.17 billion, $8.77 billion, and $8.44 billion, respectively, accounting for 52% of overall costs. The cities with the largest urban delays were Chicago ($3.14 billion), Miami ($3.2 billion), and New York City ($6.68 billion). Fuel expenses rose by $32.1 billion due to the waste of 6.4 billion gallons of diesel.
With the holiday season around the corner, the trucking and logistics industry is experiencing strong Christmas demand, fueled by high consumer spending and e-commerce. According to the National Retail Federation, retail sales are projected to surge by 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023, with a near-record 197 million shoppers expected over Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. In addition, According to a survey, 48% of small and medium-sized businesses anticipate more holiday sales than they did the year before. “Despite negative expectations, the U.S. consumer is still in healthy shape,” remarked Mazen Danaf, staff applied scientist and economist at Uber Freight. Despite supply chain issues and port disruptions, growth has been fueled by investments in fulfillment and route optimization, record Black Friday and Cyber Monday online sales, and faster delivery times.
A tanker truck on the highway, conveying fuel between storage sites and terminals.
Methodology
We sifted through stocks from Transportation ETF and from the resultant dataset, we chose 9 stocks with the highest number of hedge fund investors, using Insider Monkey’s database of 900 hedge funds in Q3 2024 to gauge hedge fund sentiment for stocks.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 55
FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) is still the largest distributor of expedited packages worldwide and the best Best Freight Stocks, having pioneered overnight service in 1973. The firm made 47% of its income from its express division, 37% from ground, and 10% from freight, its asset-based less-than-truckload shipping segment, in the fiscal year 2024, which concluded in May. The remainder comes from other services, such as FedEx Office, which produces and ships documents, and FedEx Logistics, which provides global forwarding. In 2016, the company expanded its European footprint by acquiring the Dutch transportation company TNT Express.
As the biggest less-than-truckload carrier in the US, FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) aids in building strong bonds with both industrial and retail shippers on the package side. The business has steadily improved its ground positioning over the past ten years, supported by capacity investment and a minor speed advantage over UPS.
Despite a difficult demand environment, FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX)’s transformation initiatives, such as the DRIVE program, have resulted in cost reductions of $2.2 billion, increasing adjusted diluted EPS to $4.05 in Q2 FY2025. The company’s outstanding shareholder returns and operational efficiency are highlighted by the $1 billion in share purchases it made during the quarter and its projected full-year adjusted diluted EPS of $19.00–$20.00.
The price objective for FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) was increased by BMO Capital from $300 to $330 following its Q2 results. The analyst tells investors in a research note that although FedEx’s guidance was lowered due to ongoing demand and macro headwinds, the package segment’s underlying performance continues to show progress on the front of structural cost reduction, positioning FedEx to leverage an eventual demand recovery. BMO commented that FedEx’s decision to move forward with a complete separation of the LTL business is a welcome holiday gift to shareholders and has the potential to unlock immense value.
Michael Larson’s Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust was the largest stakeholder in the company from among the funds in Insider Monkey’s database. It owns 2.53 million shares worth $693.60 million as of Q3.
Sound Shore Management stated the following regarding FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“Meanwhile, detractors of note for the quarter were connected by a common theme: signs of a slowing economy. NXP Semiconductors, a leading chip maker for the auto industry, was lower on uncertain auto demand and package hauler FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) lagged on muted volume trends. Importantly, both of these companies have ways to increase earnings outside of the business cycle, but are not entirely immune to the recent slowdown. Business cyclicality requires investor patience and a long-term perspective – we have both.”
Overall, FDX ranks 1st on our list of the best trucking stocks. While we acknowledge the potential for FDX as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than FDX but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.