American Express (AXP): 61% YTD Growth – What’s Fueling Its Continued Success? - InvestingChannel

American Express (AXP): 61% YTD Growth – What’s Fueling Its Continued Success?

We recently compiled a list of the 10 Top Performing Dividend Stocks in 2024. In this article, we are going to take a look at where American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) stands against the other top performing dividend stocks in 2024.

Over time, dividend stocks have shown consistent resilience in difficult market conditions. Despite the recent focus on AI, the long-term appeal of these stocks has grown. Income investors have noticed this shift, reflected in the increasing role of dividends in personal income. A report by S&P Dow Jones Indices reveals that the share of dividend income has risen from 2.68% in the fourth quarter of 1980 to 7.88% in the second quarter of 2024, emphasizing the importance of dividends as a key income source. The report also noted that since 1936, dividends have accounted for more than a third of total equity returns in the broader market, with the rest coming from capital gains.

The dividend growth strategy seems to be working for long-term investors as these stocks have generated strong returns over the years. Considering inflation, dividends have outpaced it, suggesting that investors should focus on these stocks. A report by Wisdom Tree highlighted that from 1957 to 2023, dividends grew at an average annual rate of 5.7%, which is over 2% higher than the inflation rate. The report also pointed out that dividends have only decreased in six years during the past 64 years, and only once by more than 5%. In comparison, stock prices fell in 18 of those years, with the worst decline exceeding 40% and an average drop of over 11%. Stock prices were more than twice as volatile as dividend cash flows, as short-term price movements are more influenced by market sentiment, while long-term value is driven by the stability of cash flows.

READ ALSO: 10 Dividend Stocks For Steady Income

This year, dividend stocks have underperformed compared to the broader market. The Dividend Aristocrat Index has gained only 6% year-to-date, while the market has surged by over 27%. Although this might seem discouraging for dividend investors, seasoned investors recognize that this presents a great opportunity to buy dividend stocks. Chris O’Keefe, a portfolio manager at Logan Capital Management, pointed out that the widening performance gap between the market and dividend stocks in 2024 creates an ideal time for investors to consider these equities. Along with O’Keefe, many analysts are encouraging investors to focus on dividend stocks due to their favorable outlook. The Dividend Aristocrats index has struggled to keep pace with the market since 2020. Dividend stocks saw a brief resurgence in 2022 as recession concerns led investors to seek out stable sectors like utilities and consumer goods, but the recovery was short-lived. By 2023, rising interest rates made bond and money-market returns more attractive than dividend yields, causing companies to adopt a more cautious stance and conserve cash amid economic uncertainty. This year, many of the top-performing stocks from the COVID era have once again driven the market to new highs.

Despite underperforming for the past two consecutive years, analysts remain optimistic about dividend stocks. They believe that dividend-paying equities could see a resurgence in 2025, as investors are increasingly seeking cash returns. The broader market’s dividend yield recently dropped to a 20-year low, falling below 1.19%, significantly lower than the long-term historical average of 4.3%. With interest rates rising on risk-free investments like Treasuries, companies are recognizing the growing competition for yield. As a result, many are responding by increasing dividends or introducing them for the first time. Notably, several major technology companies began paying dividends in 2024, signaling to the market that they are positioning themselves as value plays within a high-growth sector.

A close-up view of a payment terminal, capturing the sophistication of a payment network.

Our Methodology

For this article, we first used a stock screener to identify stocks that have reported positive returns in 2024 so far. From this selection, we chose dividend stocks with the highest year-to-date (YTD) as of December 25. The stocks were then arranged in ascending order of their YTD gains. We also considered hedge fund sentiment around each stock using Insider Monkey’s data for Q3 2024.

Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).

American Express Company (NYSE:AXP)

Year-to-Date Return as of December 25: 61.15%

American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) ranks sixth on our list of the best performing stocks in 2024. The American bank holding company offers a wide range of related services to its consumers. It is a strong company due to its economic moat, which includes lasting competitive advantages that have strengthened its position in the industry and shielded it from competitors. One of the key elements of this moat is its brand, which is perceived as premium. This reputation helps the company attract high-income customers who have the means to spend more than the average consumer. By focusing on this demographic, American Express is able to charge high annual fees for its premium credit cards. Despite these costs, the number of active cards has grown steadily, increasing from 111.1 million in Q3 2014 to 145.5 million in the most recent quarter. In addition, the company has seen a 13% year-over-year increase in average fees per card in Q3.

In the third quarter of 2024, American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) reported revenue of $16.6 billion, which showed an 8% growth from the same period last year. This was the company’s 10th consecutive quarter of record revenue. It also saw a 6% increase in total Card Member spending, with card fee revenue growth accelerating to 18%. The company successfully attracted 3.3 million new premium Card Members while maintaining high retention rates, strong credit performance, and cost discipline. Based on its strong performance and the solid earnings generated by its core business, the company raised its full-year EPS guidance to $13.75 – $14.05, up from the previous range of $13.30 – $13.80. Full-year revenue growth is still expected to align with the initial guidance, around 9%.

GreensKeeper Asset Management mentioned the company’s growth in its Q3 2024 investor letter:

“American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) was our second-largest contributor this quarter, with a return of +17.1%. AXP continues to invest in its customers beyond traditional credit card rewards, recently enhancing its Global Dining Access to provide Platinum cardholders with exclusive reservations at premier restaurants worldwide. This focus on unique experiences has attracted a younger demographic, with millennials and Gen Z driving most of the customer acquisition and card spending growth in recent quarters. Exclusive events are more challenging to replicate than standard point reward systems, presenting a challenge for competing card issuers that lack AXP’s scale and concentrated base of affluent consumers. AXP has fine-tuned its offerings over decades to strengthen its network effect and shows no signs of slowing down.”

American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) remained committed to its shareholder obligation as the company returned $15 million to investors through dividends in the most recent quarter. The company has raised its payouts twice this year and offers a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share. The stock has a dividend yield of 0.92%, as of December 25.

American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) was a part of 62 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2024, compared with 68 in the previous quarter, according to Insider Monkey’s database. These stakes are valued at over $45 billion in total. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway was the company’s leading stakeholder in Q3.

Overall, AXP ranks 6th on our list of the best performing dividend stocks in 2024. While we acknowledge the potential for AXP to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AXP but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock. 

READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock.

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

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