December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a fourth quarter rebound after demand dropped in Q2 and Q3. The return to growth was aided by rising inventory, increased retail incentives and lower interest rates, while pull-ahead volume of electric vehicles from expectations of cuts in government incentives could have played a part. Also, improved consumer confidence in October and November likely helped, while a sudden downturn in confidence in December – as well as an above-normal drain to inventory during the month – might explain some reported softening in demand at the end of the period compared with pre-holiday trajectories.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards’ estimate for December (red).
Sales in December were above the consensus forecast.
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.
This was the best December since 2019.