6 Considerations Shaping the Macro Investment Landscape
The underlying trends seen this year have continued, but after strong follow through in Asia, a more subdued tone has been seen in Europe. The...
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Hussman: Who’s Who of Awful Times to Invest
Last year John Hussman posted an article describing the March period as “an awful time to invest”. He described some unusual confluence of events that...
A Trillion Dollar T-bill ?
Warning: a thought just came to me. It might be totally wrong. A little knowledge of the law is dangerous. The idea is that the...
Tuesday: Retail Sales, PPI, Empire State Mfg Survey
Tuesday: Retail Sales, PPI, Empire State Mfg Survey by Bill McBride on 1/14/2013 09:03:00 PM From the NY Times: Obama Says G.O.P. Won’t Get ‘Ransom’...
China: Recognizing the Need for Economic Adjustment
In China, I have argued many times, high growth is no longer compatible with a strengthening balance sheet. If China is growing at a rate...
Bernanke to Congress: Do your job, Pay the Bills
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was very clear. The "debt ceiling" is about paying the bills, not about new spending. He urged congress to do their...
The Ticking Time Bomb in Bond Funds
Here’s that theme again – investors are increasingly concerned about the crowded trade in bonds primarily thanks to the Federal Reserve’s herding of investors into...
Optimism on the Rise – Should You “Fear the Cheer?”
A crowd follower does the opposite of a contrarian. Like a red light camera, contrarian indicators are effective because most people aren’t aware of them....
Part of the Answer is Hubris
There is, of course, substantial economic literature on financial fragility … that seeks to explain credit bubbles in behavioural terms – exploring how, for example,...
What You Need to Know About Emerging Markets Today
In November, China’s apparent oil consumption rose by + 0.94 million barrels per day, year over year, to a new record high of 10.5 million...