After a rough couple of months for the box office as a whole, blockbuster hopeful “Oz The Great and Powerful” should shake things up a bit as it gets launched at nearly 4,000 venues across the country with enormous expectations from Disney. Also hitting theaters will be Colin Farrell’s R-rated thriller “Dead Man Down,” though it will likely have a hard time finding its target audience thanks to mainstream appeal of “Oz” and a plethora of other options for adult audiences. Following a sub-par opening a week ago, PG-13 “Jack the Giant Slayer” should see a major dip in revenue as it struggles to compete with “Oz,” leading to what will likely be a very disappointing 10-day domestic total at the end of the weekend.
Starring James Franco and Mila Kunis, director Sam Raimi’s “Oz The Great and Powerful” hits theaters across the country this weekend with hopes of being far and away the biggest release so far in 2013. Thanks to the iconic 1939 film “The Wizard of Oz,” spin-off “Oz The Great and Powerful” has an enormous built-in audience and all the benefits of Disney’s production values and family marketing expertise, which should be a potent combination as it hopes to find the widest possible audience this weekend. While “Jack the Giant Slayer” was too mature for families with younger kids last weekend, “Oz” also carries a kid-friendly PG rating, giving it an additional boost of appeal.
Following in the footsteps of recent March smash hits like “Alice in Wonderland” and “The Hunger Games,” “Oz” also has the perfect release timing, as 2013 releases have so far hit theaters with lackluster results. After skipping a few recent releases hoping to have mainstream appeal, audiences should return by the masses this weekend as “Oz” puts together an impressive opening in the neighborhood of $70-$80 million. If audiences bail on “Jack the Giant Slayer,” “Oz” could even make a run at $90-$100 million.
Aiming at a much different demographic this weekend will be “Dead Man Down,” though a limited release and minimal buzz heading into its opening weekend suggest meager numbers from star Colin Farrell’s latest. “Dead Man Down” is not only getting a launch of just 2,188 theaters around the U.S., but it will also have to compete for adults with “21 and Over,” “Silver Linings Playbook” and smash hit “Identity Thief.” Expect an unimpressive opening of less than $10 million for the Film District distribution.
Also hitting theaters this weekend will be the Tommy Lee Jones-starring drama “Emperor,” though it likely won’t have much of an impact at less than 300 total venues across the country. Coming off of an Oscar nomination for his highly touted performance in “Lincoln,” Lee Jones has also been making waves with his performance in “Emperor,” where he plays controversial U.S. General Douglas MacArthur. Thanks to a minimal release and a mixed critical consensus, expect “Emperor” to fizzle this weekend and to finish just outside of the top 10.
While “Dead Man Down” and “Emperor” hope to pull in a few adult crowds, “Jack the Giant Slayer” may have similar difficulty pulling in adventure-seekers once again this weekend. Despite mostly positive critical reviews and an eye-popping $195 million production budget, “Jack” mainly misfired with its target audience last weekend despite topping the charts. After grossing only $28 million in first weekend revenue, look for “Jack” to see a substantial drop as audiences switch over to “Oz,” likely leading to a disappointing 10-day domestic total shy of $50 million for distributor Warner Brothers.
A movie that hasn’t had nearly as much trouble finding its audience has been “Identity Thief,” the blockbuster R-rated comedy starring Jason Bateman and Melissa McCarthy. “Identity Thief” has been near the top of the box office ever since it opened at the beginning of February, bringing its domestic total to more than $100 million in less than a month. With a production budget of just $35 million, “Identity Thief” is ensured to be one of the most lucrative comedies of 2013 and looks to be in line for a least another few weekends in the top 10.
Next weekend, PG-13 comedy “The Incredible Burt Wonderstone” will hit theaters hoping to find mainstream audiences, with popular comedic actors Jim Carrey and Steve Carell playing opposite each other as dueling magicians. Another title hitting theaters next weekend will be “The Call,” an R-rated thriller starring Halle Berry and Abigail Breslin.
RTT Box Office Predictions for 3/8/13 – 3/10/13 (in millions):
1) Oz The Great and Powerful (Disney): $82
2) Jack and the Giant Slayer (Warner Brothers): $13.5
3) Dead Man Down (Film District): $8
4) Identity Thief (Universal): $5.8
5) 21 and Over (Relativity): $4.5
6) Silver Linings Playbook (Weinstein): $4.1
7) Snitch (Summit): $4
8) The Last Exorcism Part 2 (CBS Films): $3.8
9) Safe Haven (Relativity): $3.4
10) Escape from Planet Earth (Weinstein): $3.3
by RTT Staff Writer
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