Remember when millions of Chinese donned face masks for protection during the Asian SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic back in 2003?
Now, a second, deadlier version of bird flu has just hit China. Health officials all over the world are monitoring an epidemic that could be even worse than 2003.
But some companies are already cashing in on a potential treatment. I’ll tell you about a few of those in just a moment.
How big is the problem so far? As of yesterday, a total of 21 people in eastern coastal cities — six in Shanghai, four in Jiangsu, three in Zhejiang and one in Anhui — have been confirmed with H7N9, a new, different strain of bird flu.
Six of the 21 infected have died as result of their H7N9 infection.
The country is taking aggressive action. Health officials have banned sales of live poultry in Nanjing, Zhejiang and Shanghai. They’ve also destroyed some 20,000 birds in Shanghai.
The same is expected in more cities. But things could get much worse.
That’s because there are two key differences that could make this outbreak even more serious than the previous epidemic.
One of the reasons SARS was so difficult to control was that Chinese health officials destroyed hundreds of thousands of chickens.
However, I remember watching Chinese villagers grabbing their chickens and hiding them any time they saw anyone they suspected could be a health official.
Infected or not, those Chinese chicken owners were not about to let their chickens, infected or not, be confiscated by government officials.
But this time, infected chickens are only part of the problem.
Difference #1: The new outbreak is the first time the virus has been found in humans. Plus, H7N9 is being spread by pigeons as well as chickens.
While you won’t find pigeon on American menus, it is a popular meat in China. You can even buy them at produce markets.
Moreover, pigeons are much more mobile than chickens. So the potential for H7N9 flu to rapidly spread and potentially affect millions more people is frightening.
Difference #2: Previous bird flu outbreaks resulted in thousands of chickens dying before any infections occurred in humans.
“We don’t know yet where the humans got their virus from,” said Joseph Bresee, M.D., who heads the epidemiology and prevention branch of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s influenza division.
To date, some 600-plus people who had come into contact with the infected are being monitored. None have shown signs of contracting the virus so far.
“This time we’ve seen that many species of poultry actually have no apparent problems, so that makes it difficult because you lose this natural warning sign,” said David Hui, an infectious-diseases expert at the University of Hong Kong.
You can click this link to watch a short, free CNN news report of the bird flu outbreak.
How serious is this outbreak? Ray Yip, M.D., the head of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in China, warned:
“A lot of people get severe respiratory conditions, pneumonias, so you usually don’t test them. Now all of a sudden you get this new reported strain of flu and so people are going to submit more samples to test, [so] you’re more likely to see more cases.”
At this time, there is no way to tell how much more serious this outbreak of bird flu becomes. But I believe the reaction will be significant and widespread.
‘An Epidemic Zone’
Some Chinese are already in a panic. A fresh post on Weibo, China’s version of Twitter that has more than 500 million users, said, “Suddenly I discover that I’m living in an epidemic zone!”
One Shanghai restaurant is going to stop serving chicken. “After we sell out the chicken in stock, we will not buy new chicken and will stop serving chicken dishes for the time being,” a waitress told Reuters, declining to be identified.
It is a sad reality but some companies — airlines, hotels and restaurants —are going to financially suffer while others will make a fortune from treating this new strain of bird flu.
Here are some stocks that could be big winners, which have shot up in just the past week.
Winner #1: The Chinese FDA has given fast-track status to an anti-influenza drug called Peramivir from BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX).
Winner #2: Those fortunate enough to be diagnosed early can be effectively treated with Tamiflu, which is made by Roche Holding A.G. (RHHBY).
Winner #3: There is a third option and one that has even more potential. A little-known Chinese vaccine company that has technology, expertise and the favor of the Chinese government.
I recommended that my Asian Century subscribers pick up some call options on this stock for peanuts last Friday. Those could rise 100%, 200%, 300% or even more if the disease continues to spread.
Of course, there is no such thing as guarantees in the investment business, but I believe that the risk/reward trade-off is extremely attractive.
To learn more about this exciting opportunity, subscribe to my service. I think you will be very happy with the results.
Best wishes,
Tony