Economic fears and Federal Reserve headlines continue to drive this market. The market opened firmly lower in today’s session as Chinese markets finished down more than 5% overnight. Stocks continued lower for the first part of the day before paring losses mid-day. The market failed to go positive in the mid-day rally and sellers stepped in towards the end of the day to push the market lower. The S&P closed the day down 1.21%, the Nasdaq slipped 1.09% and the Dow fell 0.94%.
The market landscape has changed dramatically over the past month. The S&P has broken below its uptrend support from the November 16th low and there is technical damage across the board. The S&P is currently in no-man’s land as it is hard to initiate new shorts as the trading oscillator hits oversold levels and the S&P stretches further from its key short-term moving averages, however there are no firm levels of support to test potential buy backs, making this a tricky spot in the market. This is a time to sit on your hands and do less.
When the market is in corrective mode, volatility (and thus risk) increase so if you are unsure of yourself, it’s best to do less. If you do choose to trade it is wise to limit your focus and stick to a few key positions. This Friday is the last day of the month, which is also the end of the 2nd quarter and the first half of the year. There could some “window dressing” into the end of the week, although that does not mean calculated moves can’t happen. Trade the price action and techincals. Today’s low of 1560 is your next short-term point of reference in the S&P, but 1530-1536 is the key support zone.
Disclosure: Scott Redler is long SPY