We are off to a relatively slow start in what promises to be a busy week for markets. Quality November month-end earnings reports will cross wires with Broadcom (AVGO), Toll Brothers (TOL), MongoDB (MDB), Gamestop (GME), and Costco (COST) posting numbers. December is also setting up to be the busiest IPO month in the history of the United States with the highly anticipated roll out of Airbnb and DoorDash coming this week. We will circle back to these names on Wednesday in our surge newsletter. It is the macro side that we wanted to concentrate on today.
- Trivia- Today is the 79th anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor. The attack occurred on a Sunday, but stock markets would open on December 8. Do you know how much the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell on that day? (Answer below)
Financial Advisors continue to watch stimulus talks unfold as we edge closer to a deal, however, the size and scope remain in question. U.S. Inflation data will be in focus at the end of the week with the Thursday release of the CPI and Friday PPI numbers. Recall, last Friday we saw the Hourly Earnings number in the jobs report come in higher than expected. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday with expectations for an additional EUR 500 bln being added to the region’s monetary stimulus tool kit. This comes a week ahead of a Fed meeting where we could see the central bank expand its monthly asset purchase program. It is this macro backdrop that keeps Financial Advisors focused on gold and the dollar.
TrackStarIQ Data
| RANK | TOP ETFS – BY ALL FAs (Total Traffic) Last Week | Ticker | TOP ETFS BY FAs w/ AUM>$1B (Total Traffic) Last Week | Ticker | TOP INDUSTRIES BY ALL FAs (Total Traffic) Last Week | TOP ETF CATEGORIES BY ALL FAs (Total Traffic) Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | SPY | VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF | GDX | Biotechnology | Large Cap Growth Equities |
| 2 | Invesco QQQ | QQQ | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | SPY | Software – Application | Leveraged Equities |
| 3 | Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund | XLE | Invesco QQQ | QQQ | Drug Manufacturers – Specialty & Generic | Technology Equities |
| 4 | VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF | GDX | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | IWM | Auto Manufacturers | Precious Metals |
| 5 | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | IWM | iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | IJH | Conglomerates | All Cap Equities |
| 6 | ARK Innovation ETF | ARKK | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | EEM | Software – Infrastructure | Materials |
| 7 | SPDR Gold Trust | GLD | Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund | XLF | Internet Content & Information | Health & Biotech Equities |
| 8 | ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures | UVXY | Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | UUP | Semiconductors | Small Cap Growth Equities |
| 9 | United States Oil Fund | USO | Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund | XLK | Internet Retail | Energy Equities |
| 10 | Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund | XLK | ARK Genomic Revolution ETF | ARKG | Drug Manufacturers – General | Consumer Discretionary Equities |
| 11 | iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN | VXX | SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF | KRE | Consumer Electronics | Leveraged Volatility |
| 12 | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF | DIA | ARK Innovation ETF | ARKK | Diagnostics & Research | Alternative Energy Equities |
| 13 | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | EEM | First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index | FDN | Electrical Equipment & Parts | Small Cap Blend Equities |
| 14 | ProShares UltraPro QQQ | TQQQ | Alerian MLP ETF | AMLP | Specialty Retail | Asia Pacific Equities |
| 15 | SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF | XOP | iShares MSCI Mexico ETF | EWW | Entertainment | Industrials Equities |
| 16 | Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund | XLI | ProShares Ultra Silver | AGQ | Oil & Gas E&P | Leveraged Commodities |
| 17 | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares | SPXL | ARK Web x.0 ETF | ARKW | Medical Devices | Large Cap Blend Equities |
| 18 | Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Bull 2x Shares | GUSH | AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF | HDGE | Credit Services | Oil & Gas |
| 19 | MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index 3X Leveraged ETN | NRGU | ARK Industrial Innovation ETF | ARKQ | Auto Parts | Government Bonds |
| 20 | ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF | MJ | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | TLT | Aerospace & Defense | China Equities |
The Gold ETF (GLD) has edged back up to #8 on the search list for All FAs. It has seen a steady increase in FA search rankings, moving up from #16 two weeks ago. The ETF is at a critical junction as it recently hit a five-month low that coincided with a test of its 200-day moving average ($169.27) for support. Early indications are that it will hold this level, but it still has to push above key resistance in the form of the 50-day moving average ($176) and a downward trend line from the early August highs. Given the macro headlines and key technical trading levels, we would expect gold to remain a key focus for FAs in coming weeks.
Other ETFs that FAs were searching include:
- Invesco Dollar Index (UUP)- #8 in searches by FAs with >$1 bln AUM. The UUP has been following the dollar to multi-year lows but it did show some signs of stabilizing last week.
- VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)- #1 in searches by FAs with >$1 bln AUM. In fact, this has been the top searched ETF in this category for five weeks. The GDX recently bounced off its 50-day moving average which sets up as significant support..
- Energy- No surprise given the record month of November for the beaten down space, but, we should note that the XLE was #3 in searches by All FAs (its highest ranking on record) and leveraged ETF plays GUSH and NRGU made FAs search list. The Alerian MLP (AMLP) ETF also made the list for FAs with >$1 bln AUM.
Trivia Answer- The DJIA would fall 3.49% with broader stock indexes falling over 4%. Stocks would fall another 10%, hitting a seven year low on April 28, 1942. The DJIA would then proceed to rally 130% over the next four years. Perhaps something to keep in mind as we fight through this pandemic.