In the last post I discussed longer-term charts of the GBP-JPY. Both of them, weekly and daily, show a strong uptrend with no real signs of slowing down. At the same time, these graphs represent advanced trend, one that could be due for a correction, if not a reversal. The likely resistance level is in the neighborhood of 170, the nearest psychological barrier. Because the price is approaching that area, it could be a good idea to have a plan in case the GBP-JPY indeed gives back some of it recent gains.
The intermediate term chart is not very revealing from the point of view of technical analysis. However, the uptrend is clearly mature, perhaps overextended, perhaps best exemplified by the distance from the 100 SMA. At 650 pips, it is as large as at any time in 2013. Over the past two years, whenever the price ran away from the 100 SMA by a similar margin (on either side), substantial correction followed soon. Now we would have to see some kind of bearish indication from the price structure itself to indicate selling pressure. On this chart, that means dropping below the latest low of 166.80, in order to build some kind of reversal pattern.
Even smaller time frame, the hourly chart, shows just how one-sided the price action has been. The GBP-JPY has rallied about 1000 pips with hardly a pullback. Currently, I am watching the minor support at 166.80 for a possible sell signal. However, if the price makes a new high above 168.80, the point of interest will shift higher too, to about 168.10. This level will become the active short-term support and likely a good entry point for sell entry. Let us see what happens next…
Mike K.