Hedge funds smell blood in the water,” and will likely “make sure stops are run below $1179…probably Monday morning.”
“We’ve seen a lot of manipulation in the gold market over the last year & so I expect we’ll probably see one of those middle of the night hits, where they dump a million contracts on the market, so that when traders wake up in the morning their stops are already run…We may have another move, something similar to what happened in April, where the bottom just drops out.
I think we’re probably going to test that 2007 c-wave top at $1030, and that’s the point where I think every short will cover and we will get our final bear market bottom…and that’s the point where you can back up the truck.”
By Tekoa da Silva, Bull Market Thinking:
I had the chance to reconnect this week with technical gold trader Gary Savage, publisher of the Smart Money Tracker daily gold market commentary and trading service, which has outperformed most of the world’s hedge funds in 2011 and 2012.
It was a powerful conversation as Gary indicated gold’s taper-induced sell-off this week has placed the metal in a position where, “hedge funds smell blood in the water,” and will likely “make sure stops are run below $1179…probably Monday morning.”
Commenting on the growing predictability of these sell-off events, Gary said, “We’ve seen a lot of manipulation in the gold market over the last year& so I expect we’ll probably see one of those middle of the night hits, where they dump a million contracts on the market, so that when traders wake up in the morning their stops are already run…We may have another move, something similar to what happened in April, where the bottom just drops out.”
When asked about ‘technical support’ levels which may overwhelm paper selling, Gary noted that, “There are three levels that could stop this. One of them is that $1179 [June low]…The next realistic level would be the 50% retracement of the entire bull market [and] that comes in at $1090. A decent amount of shorts are going to cover at that level but…I think we’re probably going to test that 2007 c-wave top at $1030, and that’s the point where I think every short will cover and that’s where you could probably get a bottom for this bear market.”
Despite the possibility of further short-term downside, Gary emphasized that, “The secular bull market is still intact—[and] I think once we get to $1000-$1030, somewhere in there, I think we’re going to get our final bear market bottom…and that’s the point where you can back up the truck.”
Following that final potential bottom, “Then we will have a bubble phase,” Gary added, “and I would not look for a top in that bubble until the dow/gold ratio gets back to 1-1, and maybe even below 1 this time. So I think [at] a minimum, gold is ultimately going to $5,000, and maybe even as high as $10,000. But I also don’t think that’s going to happen until probably 2017 or early 2018…Right now we got to get through this bear market.”
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This was another powerful interview with one of the world’s most savvy gold traders, and is required listening for investors looking to profitably trade this gold bull market.
To listen to the interview, click the following link and/or save to to your desktop:
>>Interview with Gary Savage (MP3)