U.S. consumers account for 18 percent of global gross domestic product, and it’s tempting to rely on them to continue carrying the aging recovery to support world growth. The data and growing lender anxiety, though, suggest investors should prepare for what is increasingly looking like an inevitable slowdown in economic growth next year.
Although American households managed to maintain their spending levels in the face of dwindling prospects for future economic expansion, they have done so by taking on incremental debts, which could soon prove unsustainable.
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“Through the use of credit, personal and government, U.S. households have pulled forward future consumption,” said Michael Liebowitz, a principal at 720 Global/Real Investment Advice, an economic and investment consulting firm. “The weight of those outstanding obligations serves as a wet blanket on current and future economic growth.”
… It was telling that fresh data revealed Americans ploughed more of their income to paying debts last year, the first increase in seven years. Moody’s Investors Service warned the troubling finding would lead to further increases in default rates… stresses have been growing for almost two years when increases in credit card borrowing began to outpace that of incomes. The “something-had-to-give” moment appears to be arriving.